Seven New Speculative Swing Longs And Three Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Positions

March 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

new speculative swing longs: HGR GGAL VCC MRB GMA SONE ECI

HGR is breaking out from a very flat pretty base, on very strong volume. Well, they don’t get much better than this (except BOP could have been max green). In the middle of January HGR broke out of a basing pattern on extremely strong trade with BOP going max green. After the breakout, the stock rode a nice steady trend upwards into the end of February, on a huge surge in accumulation that came with max green BOP. After the uptrend, the stock started a pullback into what has become a very perfectly shaped flat base. Volume dried up in the base, besides two days of accumulation, and BOP stayed above the zero line and stayed green most of the way. Today’s breakout, with all the green on this chart, makes this a very nice stock to go long. The fundamentals are improving with EPS growing 25% to 21% the past three quarters; sales have grown between 0% and 6% the past eight quarters. Fund ownership has increased from 20 to 24, the past four quarters. Estimates for 2008 are for a 17% increase in yearly EPS. This stock is not at the top of this crummy list for no reason. Cut your loss if the stock closes below the 50 day moving average on strong volume, if the stock does not follow-through on this breakout immediately. If it pulls back on lower volume, use the 10.51 area as your final cut loss. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

No New Swing Shorts For Monday As The Market Is Still In An Uptrend Off The March 14 Lows

March 31, 2007 | Leave a Comment

No new swing shorts for Monday as the market is starting to offer up a lot of pretty young speculative stocks to go long. Even though this market has NO quality stocks breaking out of fresh bases, and lower prices would seem to be expected the way the market is acting, it is still not time to short stocks. Why? Because there are still breakouts in the speculative crap. Big caps and speculative cheap-junk lead at the end. The uptrend isn’t over yet.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Bullish Intraday Reversal, Helps Stocks Avoid Another Possible Ugly Day; Stock Indexes Close Higher On Lower Volume

March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment

A bullish Q4 GDP final revision higher to 2.5% from 2.2%, along with jobless claims falling for the fourth week in a row, helped start stocks off on a very bullish foot before the opening bell. But soon after the opening bell, stocks trended lower all day until a strong late afternoon rally sent stocks up into the closing bell with the SP 500 even closing near its HOD. This reversal in the face of rising oil to six-month highs of over $66 a barrel and gasoline future to eight month highs at $2.1355, due to the tension between Iran and the free-world, has to be considered very impressive. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

One New Speculative Swing Long And One Speculative Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Position

March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment

new speculative swing long: GLBC

GLBC is bouncing off the 50 day moving average, on strong volume. This stock has been in a steady uptrend since the August lows, with strong accumulation, low volume pullbacks, and green BOP all over this chart. Even before the stock found a bottom, max green BOP littered this chart from March to June. After a nice steady uptrend started, the stock has constantly found support near or at the 50 dma. This time the stock is doing it after putting in some heavy accumulation days the past three months with BOP now floating around the max green territory. The bounce today on some volume, along with all the green on the chart, makes this a very pretty chart to go long. The fundamentals are horrible, with EPS showing nothing but red ink and sales showing absolutely no growth. Therefore, despite the pretty green chart, this stock is probably not the best long to take for investors looking to make a safe bet. There is simply too many flaws in the fundamentals to expect this thing to rocket to the moon. Cut your first loss and most of your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close below the 25.95 level, if the stock does not follow-through higher immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

No New Swing Shorts For Friday As The Market Is Still In An Uptrend From The March 21st Follow-Through Day

March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Even though I am not taking any shorts due to the fact that 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general trend of the market. That trend, while it may not be a great upward beast, is still not in a downtrend and unless the market is in a downtrend I simply find it too dangerous for me to risk my capital fighting the trend. The greatest traders of all time did not fight the trend. Why should I?

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Stock Indexes Close Lower On Higher Volume, Producing The First Distribution Day Since The Follow-Through On Wednesday; Is This Rally Done Already?

March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Stocks turned tail Wednesday and for the second day in a row dip-buyers did not show up as stocks moved lower, with an intraday roller-coaster ride mid-day after a speech by Ben to a Congressional panel, closing near the lows of the day. Things got off to a bad start, after the February durable good came out below expectations of a 3.5% gain with an actual 2.5% gain. That might have been bad but the ex-transportation numbers hitting YOY growth lows not seen since 2003 and capital goods coming in 1.2% lower and at lows not seen since 2004 were probably what really gave traders a scare. On top of that, add oil hitting six-month highs of $68 after-hours and settling in at $64.08 after weekly inventories were announced falling by 900k, comments by Ben that inflation is still a worry, and the tensions between Britain and Iran over the naval incident and you have plenty of reasons for stocks to go lower; and lower they went. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

One New Very Speculative CANSLIM Swing Long, Five New Speculative Swing Longs, And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Positions

March 28, 2007 | Leave a Comment

new very speculative CANSLIM swing long: JAX

JAX is bouncing off recent support and breaking out of a nice flat base pattern, on very strong volume. This stock has been in a nice steady uptrend since 2003, building nice long bases along the way. Those bases are characterized by their constant accumulation at key support areas around the 50 and 200 dma. The stock really picked up, this time around, in December, with the stock jumping on a surge in volume and BOP into the green zone. Then after another quiet base, the stock exploded to the upside at the beginning of March, on very strong accumulation and with BOP going to the max green area. Since then, the stock has created the perfect base, making a flat consolidation area with heavy accumulation and intraday bullish reversals in the base. Along with that, the stock’s BOP has been max green during the entire base. Finally a nice base I can be proud of looking at. The move today on a surge in volume, along with the max green BOP, makes this a pretty chart. The fundamentals are ok, with EPS starting to jump but on stagnant sales. The most recent quarter saw EPS gain 72% over the previous year. However, sales have only grown between 0% and 10% the past eight quarters. This stock has a perfect chart but the problem lies in the amount of volume it trades. This baby is very thin and therefore it is not going to be easy to get a good fill if you simply put a market order in. This is a limit only stock. And for newbies there should be no limit, as the average daily volume is only 10,000 and this stock does not have HUGE earnings and sales growth like what should be DEMANDED by your purchases. If you are experienced, cut your loss with a close below the 10.46 level (10.10, if you have more risk tolerance), if the stock does not follow-through on the breakout immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

No New Swing Shorts For Thursday As The Market Is Still In A Solid Uptrend Off Of The March 14 Lows

March 28, 2007 | Leave a Comment

The market still is not selling off on huge volume signaling to us that a bear market is here. Until, the trend is down on HUGE volume and we lose all of our pretty charts, like we started to after the Feb 27 sell-off, it is not smart to go short and fight the trend. Especially, since we are not in a clear trend and the fact that 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general trend of the market.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

The Bad News From The Housing Sector Just Doesn’t Stop; Stocks End Lower But On Lower Volume

March 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment

It was a day of bad news all around, as rising oil prices, more bad news from the housing market, and a drop in consumer confidence rocked stocks early. After the early morning rock, stocks basically spent the rest of the day boring everyone as all of the action was before the bell.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

One New Speculative CANSLIM Swing Long, Six New Very Speculative Swing Longs, And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Position

March 27, 2007 | 2 Comments

new speculative CANSLIM swing long: EDGW

EDGW is breaking out from a cup with high handle pattern, on very strong volume. This stock has been in a nice solid uptrend for years, with plenty of accumulation, low volume pullbacks, and max green BOP along the way. In April of 2006, the stock started a pullback on lower volume. Around July activity got really wild but the stock still managed to find a bottom around then. After climbing up off the bottom, the stock started to advance more rapidly in January with volume really picking up into February with BOP staying well above the zero line and in the green zone most of the way. This month, the stock started to form a base on very quiet trade that led up to today. Today’s breakout on a surge in volume and BOP, along with the overall pattern, makes this a pretty chart. The fundamentals are very strong, with EPS growth between 60% and 600% the past eight quarters and sales growth between 30% and 135%. The only problem is that it appears funds are not interested in this stock as the fund ownership has not increased in a year. This stock would be good for newbies, besides the low volume. However, because of the lower volume, this is not the best stock for those who can not stand pullbacks. Cut your loss w/ a close below 7.67, if the stock does not move up immediately from this breakout. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs