One New Very Speculative CANSLIM Swing Long, Five New Speculative Swing Longs, And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Positions

March 28, 2007

new very speculative CANSLIM swing long: JAX

JAX is bouncing off recent support and breaking out of a nice flat base pattern, on very strong volume. This stock has been in a nice steady uptrend since 2003, building nice long bases along the way. Those bases are characterized by their constant accumulation at key support areas around the 50 and 200 dma. The stock really picked up, this time around, in December, with the stock jumping on a surge in volume and BOP into the green zone. Then after another quiet base, the stock exploded to the upside at the beginning of March, on very strong accumulation and with BOP going to the max green area. Since then, the stock has created the perfect base, making a flat consolidation area with heavy accumulation and intraday bullish reversals in the base. Along with that, the stock’s BOP has been max green during the entire base. Finally a nice base I can be proud of looking at. The move today on a surge in volume, along with the max green BOP, makes this a pretty chart. The fundamentals are ok, with EPS starting to jump but on stagnant sales. The most recent quarter saw EPS gain 72% over the previous year. However, sales have only grown between 0% and 10% the past eight quarters. This stock has a perfect chart but the problem lies in the amount of volume it trades. This baby is very thin and therefore it is not going to be easy to get a good fill if you simply put a market order in. This is a limit only stock. And for newbies there should be no limit, as the average daily volume is only 10,000 and this stock does not have HUGE earnings and sales growth like what should be DEMANDED by your purchases. If you are experienced, cut your loss with a close below the 10.46 level (10.10, if you have more risk tolerance), if the stock does not follow-through on the breakout immediately.

new speculative swing longs: IVAN NXST ISH CNBC

IVAN is bouncing off support right near the 50 dma and the 200 dma and the pivot point of the early March breakout, on strong volume. This is not the best pattern since the stock is coming from such a strong downtrend but if you look at the December 2005 lows you will see that the stock is still making lower lows on the very long-term time frame. This stock started a move off the January lows on very strong volume, with BOP moving up to the max green area and staying there. Once the first leg up was done, it started a base in February on very low volume with BOP staying in the max green zone most of the time (very nice). In March, the stock, once again, made a powerful move to the upside on strong volume with BOP going max green. After making one more base this March, with BOP being max green (double very nice), the stock has now bounced off key support on strong volume. Today’s move on strong volume, with all the max green BOP, makes this a very pretty chart. For those familiar with this stock, you know, that the EPS is horrible. However the sales growth has been between 29% and 97%, during the past eight quarters. With that kind of fundamental record and the risky play IVAN always is, this stock is not a good long for new emotional traders. Cut your first loss with a close below the 1.83 level and your final loss with a close below the 50 dma, if the stock does not follow-through immediately.

NXST is breaking out of a short flat base, on very strong volume. This stock has been in a steady uptrend, since the lows in October lows, with volume surging on the upside and BOP going max green. This stock is under so much steady accumulation that it has had very little time to pullback at all. This pullback comes with prices flattening out and volume drying up. The BOP continued to increase in the base, making this a pretty chart. The recent price gains on strong volume comes from the fact that EPS has turned completely around. EPS grew 173% this quarter, reversing years of losses. Sales has grown between 10% and 24% the past four quarters. However, because the darn stock is so extended from the 200 dma, it is extremely risky here. Therefore, newbies who are emotional should stay far away and professionals should keep their buys very small as the 200 dma is so far away and the base itself is well above the 50 dma. This increases the odds of a normal pullback that WILL shake out weak holders. Cut your first loss with a close below the 8.25 level and your final loss at the 7.90 level or the 50 dma, whichever one comes first, if the stock does not follow-through on the breakout immediately.

ISH is bouncing off of support and breaking out over the past six days highs, on strong volume. This stock looks to be starting another move that originally began back in 2003. This recent move started with the stock putting in a strong low in October by breaking out on huge volume with BOP going max green. After some more accumulation, with max BOP, came in, the stock started a very powerful move higher ending with the stock still showing what appears to be massive accumulation. BOP went max green again, during that time. Since then the stock has started to pullback on lower volume, with BOP staying in the green area. Today’s bounce off the support appears to be the start of an upcoming breakout over the March highs. This is a very pretty chart, with all the green on this thing. However, we do have some poor fundamentals to deal with. EPS did grow over 999% this quarter but that comes after five previous quarters of low to no growth; sales are just mixed and sloppy. The fact that fundamentals are so poor and that this stock trades such a low average daily volume are good enough reasons for newbies to probably avoid this one. However, the cut loss is in such a safe risk/reward position, imo, that I really don’t care if you mess with this one. Just don’t blame me if it blows up overnight. You are the one messing with a stock that trades under 100k a day. I can’t be blamed for that. Cut your first loss with a close below the 17.50 area and your final loss with a close below the 50 dma, if the stock does not follow-through on its breakout immediately.

CNBC is bouncing right off the 200 dma and breaking out over the 50 dma, on extremely strong volume. This stock has been in a long wild and choppy uptrend since 1997. The part we want to focus on starts in March and April of 2006, where the stock started to make gains on heavier volume and max green BOP. After a very low volume pullback, where BOP stayed around the zero line, the stock was off again by June. That move came on some of the heaviest volume ever, with BOP in the max green zone. After another pullback started in November, the stock has now started to find some support on very strong volume and max green BOP right at the 50 and 200 dma. Today’s breakout above the 50 dma, with the surge in volume and BOP already being max green and staying max green, along with all the accumulation and green BOP in 2006, makes this a very pretty chart. However, the fundamentals are nothing like this nice chart. They are boring and dead, with EPS only now growing after seven straight quarters of red; EPS for December 2006 was a 21% increase YOY. Sales growth is declining rapidly. This stock is not for newbies, due to its very low average daily volume (20k), poor fundamentals, and just the chart pattern itself not being a classic breakout play. Cut all your losses with a close below the 15.16 level, if the stock does not follow-through on its breakout/bounce immediately.

adding to my existing speculative positions: CLRT MCZ

CLRT is bouncing off recent support, on strong volume. This stock has been in a very strong uptrend, since October, where it bounced off the lows on very strong accumulation and with BOP going max green. Since then, the stock, has steadily climbed its way higher on very strong volume (especially in December) with BOP hitting max green levels throughout December and again in March. The breakout in March was on very strong volume with BOP at max green. That breakout and price run led to the recent pullback which seems to be already trying to finish. The clear accumulation in this chart, along with all the max green BOP since October, makes this a very pretty chart. However, buying this stock here is very risky. This is simply a place where I am looking to buy a couple hundred more shares, in case the stock does not pullback any further. Fundamentals are mixed, with EPS still mired in the red and sales growth growing between 44% and 118% the past eight quarters. EPS in 2008 is expected to be a .04 gain. So the stock has reason to keep running. However, the only running you should be doing is running away from this stock as it is a volatile, high risk, and low priced stock. The time to buy was October 30th. If you went long there, like I did, you now have a 58% gain in some of your shares. I hope you sold some on that nasty down day in January (to protect yourself from possible bigger losses). Cut your first loss w/ a close below the 1.48 area and your final loss w/ a close below the 50 dma. Remember, I am only going long 200 shares (150 at market, 50 limit).

MCZ is breaking out of a month long cup base, on extremely strong volume. This stock has been in a nice steady uptrend since the July lows. The November breakout came on a huge surge in volume with BOP racing to the max green area and staying there for almost a month. After another light volume pullback, the stock jumped again in February on another surge in volume and BOP. Then after this most recent pullback, you now have this bounce right off the 50 day moving average. Todayâ€™s bounce/breakout on a surge in volume and BOP back to the max green area, along with the action in the stock since July, makes this a very nice chart. EPS has grown 150% and 600% the past two quarters, but sales growth is horrible and volatile. There is no interest in this stock by mutual funds and there should be little interest by all newbies in this stock. Cut your loss w/ a close below the 50 dma, if the stock does not follow-through on this bounce/breakout immediately.