Seven New Speculative Swing Longs And Three Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Positions

March 31, 2007

new speculative swing longs: HGR GGAL VCC MRB GMA SONE ECI

HGR is breaking out from a very flat pretty base, on very strong volume. Well, they don’t get much better than this (except BOP could have been max green). In the middle of January HGR broke out of a basing pattern on extremely strong trade with BOP going max green. After the breakout, the stock rode a nice steady trend upwards into the end of February, on a huge surge in accumulation that came with max green BOP. After the uptrend, the stock started a pullback into what has become a very perfectly shaped flat base. Volume dried up in the base, besides two days of accumulation, and BOP stayed above the zero line and stayed green most of the way. Today’s breakout, with all the green on this chart, makes this a very nice stock to go long. The fundamentals are improving with EPS growing 25% to 21% the past three quarters; sales have grown between 0% and 6% the past eight quarters. Fund ownership has increased from 20 to 24, the past four quarters. Estimates for 2008 are for a 17% increase in yearly EPS. This stock is not at the top of this crummy list for no reason. Cut your loss if the stock closes below the 50 day moving average on strong volume, if the stock does not follow-through on this breakout immediately. If it pulls back on lower volume, use the 10.51 area as your final cut loss.

GGAL is bouncing off support right at the 50 dma, on extremely strong volume. This stock started its uptrend off the June lows on low volume (at least there was no selling). After the rally started to gather steam, volume started to come in on the upside, along with green BOP. That trend lasted until the top in February where it started a pullback into its current base. The pullback started on low volume and as it reached the 50 day moving average started to get a ton of support. When that support came in, BOP went max green and has stayed that way the past week. Today’s bounce off the 50 dma, with all the green in this chart, makes this a pretty stock to go long. The fundamentals are not as pretty, with sales growth slowing the past two quarters and EPS moving all over the place. At least the EPS is positive but this is still more of a play just on the pretty chart. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not follow-through on this bounce immediately.

VCC is bouncing off the 50 dma and breaking out over recent resistance on the strongest volume it has ever experienced. This stock bottomed in May on decent volume and with BOP going max green and staying that way for a while. That led to a choppy (due to the low volume) rally that really picked up steam in November with volume and BOP exploding again. After putting in highs in February, the stock started a low volume pullback. At the beginning of March a nasty distribution day hit the stock, but the stock found support and rallied off the lows right at the 50 dma. That has now led to today’s breakout on huge volume and with BOP going max green. The fundamentals are very mixed, with EPS bleeding red but with sales growth growing between 36% and 487% the past five quarters. This is not the best stock for newbie emotional traders due to the extremely low average daily volume (13k daily avg.), the illiquid trading of the stock, and the poor earnings growth. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if this stock does not follow-through on the upside immediately.

MRB is breaking out of a short flat base on very strong volume. This appears to be the start of another leg in the uptrend that has started after the breakout in September of 2005. After that uptrend started, the stock saw a ton of accumulation and green BOP the entire uptrend. Then the stock started another base in May 2006 that lasted to October, on very quiet volume, with sporadic accumulation at the end. The stock broke out then on a surge in volume and with BOP going green again. That uptrend lasting until this month was full of accumulation the entire way higher. That led to the most recent base. This flat base formed with BOP going and staying max green until the breakout. The fact that BOP was green in the base and was not during the uptrend tells me that there could be even more power behind this breakout. However, there is nothing in the fundamentals that say this stock has to go higher. EPS and sales do not exist and fund ownership has fallen from 24 to 21 funds, during the past four quarters. This stock is not for the emotional newbie traders. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not follow-through on the breakout immediately.

GMA is bouncing off support and breaking out above the 50 day moving average, on strong volume. The stock bottomed in February with max green BOP preceding the bottom of the stock. After that bottom, the stock maintained a steady and consistent uptrend with some days of accumulation along the way. Before the end, BOP went max green, making it appear the stock was ready to breakout. Instead, the stock pulled back, into a nice round cup-like base. On the third trading day in March, GMA made a huge intraday reversal with BOP going max green. After that reversal, the stock worked on hammering out a base on green BOP. After the stocks selling pressure dried up, the stock has now blasted out over the 50 dma. Today’s breakout, with all the green in the chart since November, makes this a pretty stock to go long. But I can not get any fundamental information on this stock, so I am only going to get like 10-20 shares as this is just a play on the chart. This stock is in NO WAY for newbie emotional traders. We don’t have enough information. Cut your first loss with a close below the 23.85 level and your final loss with a close below the 23.50 level or the 200 dma, if the stock does not follow-through on this breakout immediately.

SONE is putting in a massive intraday reversal that happened right off the 50 dma, on very strong volume. This stock has been part of a very wild and choppy uptrend since this move started late-March. When the move started volume exploded to the upside and BOP raced to the max green level. After a wild low volume pullback, the stock got another sign of life in October when the stock made another huge volume move with BOP going max green. Then a much smoother stair-step pattern emerged, as the stock went higher on higher volume, with low volume pull backs. After a V move in February and March, the stock started a nice calm flat base with BOP going max green inside the base. Today’s bounce, with all the recent green on the chart in March, makes this a pretty stock to take a little long. And a little is all I am taking. The fundamentals, like most of these jokesters tonight, are very poor. EPS is back to bleeding red but sales growth has grown 22% and 27% the past two quarters. However, before that it was ugly. Since the fundies are weak and the chart is wild, this stock is not a good long for newbie emotional investors. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not follow-through on the breakout immediately.

ECI is breaking out of a short consolidation that is part of a longer ascending base pattern after a deep cup, on strong volume. This chart is about as thin as it gets so right off the bat I want everyone to know that this is strictly a limit order ONLY stock. And you are not going to be going long anyways, so know that if this stock gaps, I will not be in it, unless I change my order intraday and buy it at-the-market. This stock has been under solid accumulation coming off the October lows where BOP went max green. The uptrend picked up steam in February with the stock making good gains on very strong accumulation and with BOP going max green. After another quiet base this month, the stock has now broken out with BOP going max green again. This chart is very pretty, despite the very poor liquidity.The fundamentals are turning around, with EPS growing between 100% and 167% the last three quarters and sales growing 1% to 32% the past eight quarters. Despite this, you should completely avoid this stock. I will be cutting my first loss with a close below the 3.82 level and my final cut loss will be on a close below the 50 day moving average, if this stock does not follow-through on the breakout immediately.

adding to existing speculative positions: INXI BMTI CLRT

INXI is bouncing off the 50 day moving average and breaking out past March resistance, on extremely strong volume. This stock has been in a nice uptrend since the October lows, where it found a bottom on strong volume with BOP eventually going max green as the uptrend progressed. After a very long and choppy base, the stock started its uptrend again in October on a jump in accumulation. After a slow start, the stock really picked up momentum in January as price started making significant gains on strong volume and BOP went back into the max green zone. After a strong breakout attempt in March on strong volume and max green BOP, the stock instead decided to make another base. This base has turned out to be perfect, even though it is short. The extremely low volume in the base, with BOP staying at max green, is just what you like to see in a base. Today’s breakout, with all the green in this chart, makes this a very pretty stock to go long. The fundamentals are very solid and appear to only be getting better. EPS has grown 117%, 0%, and 650% the past three quarters, reversing a pattern of no growth and losses; sales growth has been between 21% and 94% the past eight quarters. Sales are also starting to accelerate again. Estimates for 2007 YOY EPS growth is 162%. Despite this stock being a bit speculative due to the low average daily volume (27k a day) and the poor fund ownership, this stock is still an extremely beautiful chart and the fundamentals support higher prices. So this is a speculative stock that would make for a good long to play for newbies/emotional traders. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not follow-through on this bounce/breakout immediately.

BMTI is bouncing off the 50 dma (again) and breaking out past March resistance, on very strong volume and a surge in BOP to the green zone. This stock is a picture perfect example of how you want your stock to act. The stock started its move in September on a surge in volume and BOP. As the uptrend went along into November, the stock pulled back into a nice quiet downtrend. In December the stock blasted off the 50 day moving average on very strong volume and with BOP going max green and green most of the way through the base. Then again at the end of January, the stock blasted off the 50 dma on huge volume and max green BOP. After this uptrend, the stock has now created another low volume quiet and flat base, leading to today’s breakout/bounce. The fundamentals are not good, with EPS bleeding red and sales growth only now showing gains (206% most recent quarter). Fund ownership has increased from 7 to 11 the past four quarters; and that is why you see the stock moving up on such large accumulation. This is a very pretty green chart and with the fund ownership increasing there is enough reason to go long this stock despite the weak fundamentals. So even though fundamentals are not good on this one, you still have my blessing to speculate away. Cut your loss w/ a close below the 50 dma, if the stock does not follow-through on the breakout/bounce immediately.

CLRT is breaking ouf of a short flat base, on very strong volume. This stock has been in a very strong uptrend, since October, where it bounced off the lows on very strong accumulation and with BOP going max green. Since then, the stock, has steadily climbed its way higher on very strong volume (especially in December) with BOP hitting max green levels throughout December and again in March. The breakout in March was on very strong volume with BOP at max green. That breakout and price run led to the recent pullback which has led to this breakout. The clear accumulation in this chart, along with all the max green BOP since October, makes this a very pretty chart. However, buying this stock here is very risky. This is simply a place where I am looking to buy a hundred shares. Fundamentals are mixed, with EPS still mired in the red and sales growth growing between 44% and 118% the past eight quarters. EPS in 2008 is expected to be a .04 gain. So the stock has reason to keep running. However, this is not a good long for newbies due to the extremely high risk position the stock is in now. The time to buy was October 30th. If you went long there, like I did, you now have a 75% gain in some of your shares. I hope you sold some on that nasty down day in January (to protect yourself from possible bigger losses). Cut your first loss w/ a close below the 1.48 area and your final loss w/ a close below the 50 dma.