Stock Indexes Follow-Through On Day Six Of Rally Attempt; Something Seems Wrong About This Follow-Through

March 22, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Stocks were boring and dead all day long, until 2:15pm when the Fed announced their decision on interest rates. When that happened, stocks exploded to the upside, destroying shorts in the process. The party was not started based on the decision, as everyone expected rates to stay at 5.25%. The fireworks erupted because the Fed left out the hawkish comments and adopted a more neutral rate policy. That sparked non-stop buying on strong volume, into the close.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

One New Speculative CANSLIM Swing Long And Two Speculative Swing Longs For Thursday

March 21, 2007 | Leave a Comment

new speculative CANSLIM swing long: LCAPA

LCAPA is breaking out of a short flat base, on very strong volume. This stock has been in a nice steady constant uptrend since its IPO. The uptrend has been full of strong accumulation and very low volume pullbacks. Along the way, BOP has held above the zero line most of the way, spending a lot of time in the green territory. Today’s breakout, on a volume and BOP surge, along with the overall action of this stock makes this a pretty chart. The fundamentals are getting better, with the EPS growing at a 110% the past three quarters and sales growing 8% to 20% the past four quarters. However, the stock still might not be the best long, since the fund ownership is falling and the stock is breaking out of a shorter base. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 dma and/or a close below the flat base’s lows, if the stock does not follow-through on its breakout immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

No New Swing Shorts For Thursday As The Market Had A Follow-Through Day Today, Signaling That The Trend Is Up For Now

March 21, 2007 | Leave a Comment

No new swing shorts for Thursday as 3 out of 4 stocks follow the trend of the market. Though not all follow-throughs work; no bull market has ever started without one. I kept telling people that it wasn’t time to short and look at what has happened to the shorts.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Stocks Rally For Second Straight Day, On Lower To Flat Volume; Funds Still Have No Interest In This Market

March 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment

It was another day of light gains, for the stock market. However, today, had a bit more of a steady bullish bias to it, unlike yesterday, as big-cap indexes closed near their HOD. The good news for stocks came on the back of a better-than-expected housing starts number for February. That number was up 9% for the month, which is much better than the 14% drop in January. The bad news, in that mix, came from building permits as they fell again by 2.5%. The other positives effecting stocks was M & A activity. The news that CYTC is making a full bid for ADZA and that PALM might receive a bid for its business might have had a positive impact on stocks. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

No New Swing Longs For Wednesday; Adding To My Existing Position In One Speculative Stock

March 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Adding to speculative swing long: LPSN

LPSN is breaking out from a short flat base, on very strong volume. This move comes after a recent breakout/bounce in early March on heavy volume. This uptrend is still very strong and more and more accumulation keeps showing up, with almost no volume on the pullbacks. The recent base came on very quiet volume and with BOP staying very green. The accumulation in this chart along with all the green BOP makes this a very pretty chart. However, this stock is still very speculative due to the volatility, the fact that this move is 10% extended from a safe cut loss, fund ownership has fallen from 30 to 20 the past four quarters, and the long term EPS growth is only now starting to shape up. Estimates are for a 340% gain in Y over Y earnings this year and for a 36% gain next year. Sales have been growing from 22% to 64%, the past past four quarters, showing a current area of growth. Cut your final loss w/ a close below the 6.32 area, if the stock does not follow-through on this breakout immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New Swing Short For Wednesday

March 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment

New swing short: TNB

TNB is breaking down past the 50 and 200 dma, on extremely strong volume. This breakdown comes right as the 50 dma met up with the 200 dma, which should have acted as strong support. Instead the stock broke right through. The stock clearly topped in June on extremely heavy distribution and since then has had a tough time getting anything going on the upside. This stock is starting to rollover. Cover your short w/ a close above the 50/200 dma, if the stock does not continue to breakdown immediately.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Stocks Gap And Trap Shorts On Lower Volume; Second Lowest Volume Since Last Week of 2006

March 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment

It was an exciting morning, as stocks gapped higher, as many investors were expecting a big follow-through day. However, after that gap up, stocks did not go much further than that, giving a feeling of a short-squeeze and not real buying by funds. The gap up, this morning, gave credit to the overnight success of Asian markets and the rash of mergers and acquisitions that took place. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

Three New Speculative Longs For Tuesday

March 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment

New speculative swing longs: EDP VSR REFR

EDP is bouncing off the 50 dma and recent support, on very strong volume. This stock has been in a constant uptrend since 2003 and this appears to be another pullback before another leg higher. The action on this pullback is real nice with the accumulation the past month HUGE and the pullback on the down days this month on very low volume. BOP has also been max green the entire month making this a very pretty chart. However, because it is already up so much I am not sure how much more we can expect to gain. But we have a tight cut loss so it is a good long for now. The fundamentals have turned for the worse, as EPS and sales are in the red now. The overall growth of this stock was not that great anyways, as EPS is all over the map and sales is only growing around 5-10% the previous three quarters leading up to the recent poor quarter. Cut your loss w/ a close below the 50 dma, if the stock does not follow-through immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New Swing Short For Tuesday

March 19, 2007 | Leave a Comment

New swing short: DIOD

DIOD is breaking down at the down trending 50 dma, on very strong volume. This stock topped in September on a big surge in volume. That day appeared to be positive but it eventually led to the Sell-off at the beginning of November on strong volume. BOP was already red, before the sell-off. Since then the stock has trended down with an attempt to restart an uptrend in February quickly reversed. After a recent very low volume basing pattern, the stock has now broken down on heavy volume and red BOP right below the recent support. Take all of this action, along with the 200 dma becoming strong resistance now, and you have a good short. Cover your short completely with a close above the 50 dma, if the stock does not continue to breakdown immediately.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

A Choppy Day With A Downside Bias Ends With Stocks Slightly Lower; Quadruple Witching = Quadruple Boring

March 16, 2007 | Leave a Comment

It was a weird sluggish session, today, but in the end it was another typical quadruple-witching Friday. However, there was plenty of data for Wall Street to go through, despite this once a month event. The CPI rose a little over .4%, a bit higher than the .3% estimate. But the core prices came in line rising .2% for a year over year change of 2.7%. Industrial production jumped 1% in February, over the readings for a .3% increase and its largest increase since November. Michigan consumer confidence fell (are you surprised there?) to 88.8. Add the fact that oil fell below $58 and might have thought it would have been a more exciting day. Nope. Quadruple-witching ruled the day. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

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