Three New Speculative Long Positions And One Speculative CANSLIM Long I AM Adding To My Existing Position

June 23, 2007

The market may be very choppy. But those who read my postings on daily market analysis know that this was coming. I still have very few stocks giving me complete sell signals and most of my longs continue to act very well. Therefore, I don’t think there is any reason to panic with the recent selling. Saying that, however, I would not want to load up on stocks here. None of these are of superior quality–minus ASIA–and most longs should be kept small with the way the market is acting. ASIA is your best one of the bunch, in terms of total quality.

new speculative long positions: GEOY AWH ALVR

GEOY is putting in a solid intraday reversal, bouncing off of strong support, near the June breakout pivot point, on extremely strong volume. This chart is very pretty but nowhere near a perfect long due to how short the base is and how far away the 50 dma. However, the max green BOP on this chart since the end of April, the heavy accumulation since the beginning of this stock’s life, and the very tight bases this stock forms makes this a very nice chart. The max green BOP is very pretty and the huge surge in volume is why I like this chart. The fundamentals are good but not great, with EPS growth going negative after growing between 108% and 278% the past four quarters, sales growing between 19% and 313% the past seven quarters, ROE of 16%, and a debt load of 151%. Estimates for YOY earnings growth for 2007 and 2008 are for gains of 11% and 37% respectively. This is probably why fund ownership has grown from 1 to 2 to 5 the past four quarters. This stock chart is not perfect so I would not load up. However, there are clear cut loss areas that make the stock not too risky. Cut your first loss with a close below the 21.77 level and your final loss with a close below the 20.64 level, if the stock does not move higher immediately.

AWH is putting in a very bullish intraday reversal, bouncing right off the 50 day moving average, on extremely strong volume. This chart is pretty with all the green BOP from September to October of last year, the solid base that led to the uptrend in April, the green BOP during th April to June move, the heavy accumulation since the May move, and the nice BOP surge to max green with volume and price today. This chart is nowhere near perfect but the move today is very pretty. Definitely worth a poke. The fundamentals are a bit mixed, with EPS growing between 11% and 999% the past five quarters, sales growth all over the place the past eight quarters, ROE of 26%, and outstanding debt of 22%. Earnings estimates for YOY growth for 2007 and 2008 are for drops of 14% and 1% respectively. The poor fundamentals are enough reason to keep this one small. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average if the stock does not move higher immediately.

ALVR is bouncing off of recent support near the 50 day moving average, at the June breakout pivot point, closing at its HOD, on above average volume. This chart has been very nice since February, with strong accumulation and low volume pullbacks, solid support at the 50 day moving average, and green BOP that has been steadily rising since early June. The chart would be a bit nicer if BOP was going max green on this move and if the volume during this base was a lot more quiet instead of having those days with volume over the 50 day volume average. The fundamentals are not that great, with EPS showing a lot of flat growth, sales growing 22% and 19% the past two quarters after a lot of losses, ROE of 2%, and zero debt. This is not the best long for newbies, but the stock is close to the cut loss area and BOP has been green the whole way during the base and on today’s move. So a small long would be OK. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move higher immediately.

adding to existing speculative CANSLIM long position: ASIA

ASIA is bouncing off of recent support, near the pivot point of the June breakout, on extremely strong volume. This is a very pretty chart that has been in a nice uptrend since November. What makes this stock very nice is all the max green BOP before the downtrend in February started, the strong accumulation since the move in May started, and the BOP going max green on today’s bounce after being below the zero line. That is very pretty. Todayâ€™s bounce appears to be a resumption of the trend that started again in May. The fundamentals are very strong and getting stronger, with EPS growing 50%, 143%, and 700% the past three quarters, estimates for 07 and 08 earnings are for gains of 125% and 17% respectively, sales have been growing between 6% and 66% during the past five quarters, ROE is a respectable 4%, and this company is carrying no debt. Fund ownership is growing once again, after a slight dip, with ownership first declining from 13 to 4 then growing again to 8 and now 12. Cut your loss with a close below the 8.55 level or with a close below the 50 dma, if the stock does not move higher immediately.

Three New Speculative Long Positions And One Speculative CANSLIM Long I AM Adding To My Existing Position

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