ON VACATION UNTIL NEXT MONDAY BUT HERE IS MY DAILY CHECK-IN…..

July 31, 2007

This is what I wrote on my “new shorts” section:

Remember, this market might be in a correction but the leading stocks like RIMM AAPL CROX GOOG TNH and FWLT have not put in clear tops yet. When these stocks start to breakdown you can guarantee the time to make the big fast money shorting stocks will be then. But for right now the market is only starting to weaken. Do not jump the gun and think this is the ultimate top. People did that in 2004 2005 2006 and in February 2007. Every downturn you see in your charts was supposedly the start of the next big bear. Well, until those stocks I just mentioned all start breaking down on huge volume on their weekly charts, fail their 50 and 200 day moving averages then rally back and fail those test you simply can not say that the big bad bear is here. Could this be it? Yes. But until my true leaders breakdown I am not going to go 200% on margin in these shorts. For now they are very tiny test positions, since my other short recommendations have been doing so well recently.

The other thing that keeps me from shorting the market to kingdom come is that I still have a lot of longs well above their 50 day moving averages and above key support.

To add to that:

This market’s lower volume bounce yesterday was met by what I consider some of the ugliest and most clearly aggressive dumping of stocks that I have seen in years after the market was showing positive gains. The rate that the market sold off on after 1pm EST was just sort of stunning in the DJIA. However, with the market showing positive gains, after a lower volume move up yesterday that did nothing to reverse the Friday losses, the reversal was even more bearish. It was more bearish due to the fact that volume jumped considerably and if you look at your intraday volume on the indexes you will see a final 5 minute selloff on extremely heavy volume, especially on the NYSE. This is not bullish folks. However, I still am long a considerable amount of stocks that are not only holding well above their 50 day moving averages but are also holding above their most recent support and are acting like NOTHING is wrong with market. So obviously I am in some strong pockets. However, very few are big positions. Most are smaller and very speculative. But heck, I’ll take whatever I can take if it will make me a little bit of money in a bear market.

The put/call ratio is still very very high at 1.12 indicating that there is a lot of fear in this market already. Speaking of fear, the bears I noticed today on the TV were very loud and proud of the market and their “calls.” LOL. Are these people nuts. YES, you are right NOW! But most of these guys have been bearish since January 2004. Boy oh boy, you sure did miss out on a LOT of money buy listening to them if you believed them then. For now, they are right. But oh boy oh boy are these guys ever so wrong. How is the short CROX crowd holding up? Since March it is the same thing. But just you watch, when CROX FINALLY tops, they will say they got it right. Try not to listen to these jokers, keep things in perspective, keep holding your longs that are acting perfectly (like JDAS), keep cash high, do not go long stocks here, and cut your losses and your laggards if the market continues to selloff.

ALOHA from Texas. Dallas is cool. But San Antonio was amazing. No wonder the Spurs have won 4 NBA titles in less than 9 yrs.