No New Long Positions And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Positions

July 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment

NOBODY SHOULD BE GOING LONG STOCKS AT THIS STAGE OF THE MARKET. TODAY COULD EITHER BE A TOP OR IT COULD EITHER BE A BOTTOM. THE AMOUNT OF VOLUME ON TODAY’S MOVE IS VERY VERY HUGE. WITH THE BREADTH AND UP TO DOWN VOLUME SO LOPSIDED, IT IS POSSIBLE WE PUT IN A SHORT-TERM BOTTOM. HOWEVER, A LOT OF CHARTS ARE BROKEN AND MOST CHARTS IN MY SCAN DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. I HAVE VERY FEW WITH MAX GREEN BOP IN THEM THAT ARE SETTING UP NEW BASES. IT IS TIME TO BE VERY DEFENSIVE AND IF YOU ARE A NEWBIE TO NOT GO LONG STOCKS.

no new long positions

adding to existing speculative CANSLIM/speculative positions:

MFRI Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Three True Leading Stocks (AMZN BIDU AAPL) Hold The Market Up Despite The Horrible Breadth

July 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Today’s trading shows that it still is not the right time to be calling a top and the action after-hours confirms this. AAPL and BIDU both blew away numbers after hours and both are trading up considerably now. AAPL blew past third-quarter forecasts, driving shares to an all-time high in after-hours trading. The stock was up more than 8% to $148.50 following the report, a slight retreat from earlier toppling the $150 level in extended trading. Then Chinese Internet company BIDU breezed by Wall Street’s second-quarter forecasts Wednesday as profit more than doubled up 128% and sales up 120%. This gives BIDU eight straight quarters of EPS and sales growth over 100%. Simply incredible. This is a leading stock! Shares rocketed 21.6%, or $39.61, to $222.84 after hours.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

No New Short Positions For Thursday

July 25, 2007 | Leave a Comment

I am going to post the charts of yesterday’s shorts, tonight. I got busy yesterday. I apologize.

If this was a bear market, TCO would make a good short here.

TCO Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Speculative Long Position And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Position

July 25, 2007 | Leave a Comment

new speculative long position: MFG

MFG is bouncing off the 50 day moving average, closing above the July resistance and at its HOD, on strong volume. This chart is very pretty for a new issue as it has green BOP and max green BOP all over it. The great intraday daily price action, heavy accumulation, and green to max green BOP since mid March just makes this chart a very strong looking chart. What also helps is how it bounced right off the 50 day moving average. The fundamentals are mixed, with EPS falling 19% and 29% the past two quarters, sales growth between 1% and 27% the past eight quarters, a 15% ROE, YOY earnings estimates for 2007 and 2008 for gains of 22% and 8% respectively, and 189% debt to shareholder equity. There is no growth in the fund ownership the past three quarters. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move higher immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Nasty Selloff On Higher Volume Gives All Indexes A Clear Distribution Day; Time To Raise Cash, Cut Laggards, And Hold Off On New Buys

July 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Today was not a good day but by no means does it look like the sky is about to fall. I have a lot of charts still looking very strong. Saying that I am cutting my laggards and taking some profits across the board in case things do get worse. I have no problem switching sides, as you can see that I have been posting short recommendations constantly the past month plus. Those shorts are really making some big gains and are obviously doing much better than recent longs. That is as clear as sign as any that this market is getting weak on the short term. The expanding new lows on every rally in the index was the tip off. Today there were 561 new 52-week lows to 139 new 52-week highs. Better safe than sorry. Nobody EVER went broke cutting losses short and taking profits when the market started to look weak.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

No New Short Positions For Wednesday But…

July 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment

no new short positions for wednesday but it is apparent that all my short recommendations are working so the market is probably setting itself up for a possible downtrend. however i do not recommend going short until after the market has clearly topped. something tells me the crowd is too bearish right now for us to top. the put/call even surged to 1.16 at the close.

if this was a clear bear market, these stocks would make good shorts:

SLG Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

No New Long Positions And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Positions

July 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment

It is time to stop going long stocks, for now, if you are a newbie. Just sit back and watch me trade, unless you are completely experienced at this. The market needs to restart an uptrend before newbies can even consider going long stocks. If you are not checking out the short candidates that I have been posting on my “new shorts” section, you need to start doing that. They are all working; that is bad for longs.

I really like DBTK as a company and today’s purchase will be my third buy which clearly shows that I am more than interested in accumulating this stock and that it is pyramiding like a champ despite a weak market. If this chart had max green BOP and the market was acting better I would love to advise everyone to buy some. But the market is just too skittish right now for me to feel confident in telling you to go long. Most gold members know how much I like the company, so this is nothing new for them.

adding to existing speculative/speculative CANSLIM long positions: HUB.A DBTK

HUB.A is bouncing off support near the 50 day moving average and breaking out to new 52-week highs from a two-week tight base, on extremely strong volume. This is a beautiful chart going back to April, with all the great daily intraday price action, the excellent and huge accumulation along the way with low volume pullbacks, and the green to max green BOP all the way long (except two days). What makes the chart more perfect, in the short term, is that on the recent bounces BOP has gone max green from a high green. This makes this chart near perfect. The only problem I see with this chart is that today’s action had such a powerful move higher but was thrown back well below the mid point of the daily range that it could be a possible bearish reversal. However, most of the volume was before the move higher, instead of on the move lower so that is some slight comfort. It is also more risky with the low average daily volume of ONLY 9k a day. So newbies should use limits and not load up on this one. The fundamentals are pretty darn good, with EPS growing 6% in the most recent quarter, sales growing between 3% and 18% the past eight quarters, and a ROE of 16%. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move higher immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Inside Day (Technical Term) Leaves Little To Be Discussed; M&A’s And Buyouts Continue At Incredible Pace

July 23, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Basically there is not much you can say at all today if you are a serious market speculator. The indexes all put in an inside day which pretty much makes today’s action meaningless. If you do not know what an inside day is, it is when the price action of today, for instance, is all done within the daily highs and lows of Friday’s action. The only thing that was obvious about the market today is that the appetite for M&A’s and buyouts continue.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

No New Short Positions For Tuesday

July 23, 2007 | Leave a Comment

If this was a bear market, DBRN HTLD and ITMN would be good shorts.

DBRN Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Three New CANSLIM Long Positions, One New Very Speculative Long Position, And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Position

July 23, 2007 | Leave a Comment

There is nothing here in the new longs that is perfect. All of the new CANSLIM longs have some flaw or some reason to not be bought in bulk. The prettiest chart in the bunch is HUB.A. Gold members know how much I like this one. But due to the fundamentals not being great I simply can not pound the table, despite how perfect the chart is since mid April. The max green BOP and fantastic price and volume action since late June is beautiful.

new CANSLIM long positions: RBN PRXL MFRI

RBN is breaking out of a short flat base on base pattern, on strong volume. This chart really shaped up in April when it made that move off the bottom on very large volume. The entire uptrend that followed was full of BOP above the zero line with it mainly being green the whole way. The great intraday price action and accumulation, along with the constant green BOP the past month really does make this a nice chart. The only problem is that this is a very short base that it is breaking out of and has a higher chance of failure than a breakout from a base lasting at least 5 weeks. The fundamentals are very strong, with EPS growing between 45% and 517% the past seven quarters, sales growing between 8% and 12% the past four quarters, a ROE of 6%, cash flow of $.52 per share, and YOY earnings estimates for 2007 and 2008 for gains of 138% and 16% respectively. Fund ownership has grown from 74 to 90 funds the past four quarters, clearly showing the smart money is interested in this stock. Cut your loss with a close below the 56.70 level, if the stock does not move higher immediately. Read more

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

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