One New Short Position For Tuesday

August 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment

new short position: CEG

CEG is failing right at the 50 day moving average, after repeated attempts to move above it, on average volume. This chart may be a little early to short with the 200 day moving average still underneath to support this stock. But the pickup in the volume today after the low volume rally does make it appear CEG is ready to move lower. This stock appears to be a good short because the stock has failed the July breakout on heavy volume, putting in a key reversal. After one attempt at trying taking out the 50 day moving average in early August it has tried again and is failing. This stock is paying a 2% dividend, so it is not that costly to be short this stock, but we do need it to move lower right away to cover the cost and make a solid profit. If there is no follow-through, you must cut your loss with a close above the 50 day moving average immediately.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

No New Long Positions And One Speculative CANSLIM Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Position

August 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment

adding to existing speculative CANSLIM long position: VII

VII is bouncing off the pivot point area of the breakout from four days ago, on strong volume. This chart remains very pretty since the initial long was entered off the breakout from the ascending base on base pattern. However, BOP is going the wrong way, even though it is still green. This puts a little damper in the chart. Unless BOP starts building higher along with the price, there is a good chance this stock could test the 50 day moving average. The fundamentals are very good, with the EPS growing between 108% and 999% the past five quarters, sales growing between 5% and 38% the past five quarters, and cash flow of $.10 a share. Unfortunately, there are no earnings estimates or ROE, which does bother me a little bit. Fund ownership has grown from 6 to 12 funds the past four quarters, showing that the smart money does have an interest in this stock. But with the average daily volume for the past 50 days a low 83,000 and an unclear future with earnings estimates, new investors should keep this very small. Cut your loss with a close below the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move higher immediately.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Very Boring But Bullish Week Comes To An End With Volume Completely Absent; Negative Divergence In Price And Volume On Indexes Developing

August 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment

Well if you wanted the opposite of last week, you definitely got it this week. The complete opposite happened as stocks rallied on extremely low volume. Even though the rally was powerful and the Nasdaq almost climbed 3%, the volume was almost 1/2 of what it was last week when the index was making new lows and the Fed was injecting money into the system to prevent a crisis.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

No New Short Positions For Monday

August 25, 2007 | Leave a Comment

There was nothing in my short scans for Monday. The only chart that cracked that I would like to see rally on low volume to the moving averages was MRVL. Right now, it is WAY TOO EXTENDED, to make a good short.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

No New Longs And One CANSLIM Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Position

August 25, 2007 | Leave a Comment

adding to existing CANSLIM long position: ROS

ROS is breaking out of a series of ascending base patterns, on very strong volume. This stock has really picked up steam since the beginning of 2006 but starting in 2007 it has started building a series of ascending bases. The move into new high grounds (technically the old highs are in April–but that is splitting hairs) this time is accompanied by a heavy surge in volume. That came along with an excellent bullish intraday reversal, that created an engulfing candlestick chart pattern, on HUGE volume just seven days ago. This stock is really nice with the green BOP that started on the day of the great reversal. Since then the BOP has stayed green has ticked higher on Friday’s breakout. The chart would be a lot nicer if the BOP was green before the surge and the surge then would have sent BOP to max green. However, we have to take what we can take in this market. The other excellent positive for this chart is that the RS line well outpaced the price of the stock to new highs in mid-August. This stock is clearly showing strength in a weak market. The fundamentals are very strong, with EPS growing between 11% and 91% the past three quarters, sales growing between 7% and 59% the past eight quarters, a ROE of 25%, cash flow of $4.82 a share, only 14% debt to shareholder equity, and YOY earnings estimates for 2008 for a gain of 36%. However, fund ownership has fallen from 10 funds to 9 the past four quarters, so obviously the smart money is not as interested as it appears the stock may warrant. So the low fund ownership and lack of green to max green BOP with heavy accumulation will prevent me from getting too excited about this one. But this is still a nice chart. Cut your first loss with a close below the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close below the August lows, if the stock does not move higher immediately.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Volume Remains Absent As Stocks Drift Lower On Lower Volume

August 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment

The stock market has, overall, been very boring this week and has, absolutely, given us ZERO direction as to which way the market wants to go. Yesterday’s move did produce some decent longs but none of them performed well besides the clearly best chart of the bunch. However, the fact that the market and those longs had little follow through today has to have us scratching our heads wondering, “is this the best the bulls can do after finding out Ben is now on their side?”

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Commentary

One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position And One Speculative CANSLIM Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Position

August 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment

FALC is a day too late to go big in. So this will be a much smaller long compared to yesterday’s purchase. PLMD is great on the long-term chart, but on the short-term it is very volatile compared to the price action the whole year and the 50 day moving average is pretty far away to be considered a safe long.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Four New Short Positions For Friday

August 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment

None of these are perfect shorts in any former tech growth leading stock, but there are some short patterns here worth taking. Once again, nothing is going to be over $500 as all of my shorts continue to act poorly overall. These are basically just test shorts as nothing here excites me at all and the market is as choppy and wild as it has been in a year. There is no clear trend up or down.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

No New Short Positions For Thursday

August 23, 2007 | Leave a Comment

There were no stocks in any of my short scans that would make good shorts right now. Even if there were, the way shorts have been acting recently, it probably would not be smart to take them.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Four New CANSLIM Long Positions, Two New Speculative Long Positions, One New Speculative Long Position, And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Position

August 23, 2007 | 2 Comments

There are a lot of new longs after today’s impressive rally. However, NONE of these are perfect. Therefore nobody should rush out and put all your money in these new longs thinking we are all clear. You still need near perfect chart patterns and NONE of these fall into that category. If today’s follow-through (IBD did not call it one, oddly) does hold, there will be much better charts showing up. If they do not show up, there is no way this rally is going to hold.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

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