Eight New Short Positions And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Ex-Leaders Short Position For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

January 30, 2008

As those who are familiar with me know, I am only focusing on 11 stocks as my large short positions. None of those are listed directly below. UBB RE and AMX are going to be larager positions than MDU YUM ABB, and AGO but MDU and ABB are going to be largeer than AGO and YUM. This should make sense to those that understand how to read charts. For those that do not, please start reading those book I have listed on my books section. I am here to make you a LOT of money and prevent you from losing your capital. I can’t think for you!

new short positions: DECK UBB RE AMX MDU YUM ABB AGO

DECK is putting in a minor bearish reversal today, on very strong volume. The stock recently failed at the 50 DMA and has not been able to bounce again before having the bearish day today on strong volume. The recent selling is very evident on a weekly and the stock really looks very toppy right now. The RS line is making lower lows to the recent price action, confirming the weakness in the stock. Cut your loss with a close above the 124.10 level, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

UBB is putting in a bearish reversal and failing at the 50 day moving average, on strong volume. This stock topped in December and has started selling off on higher volume with BOP going red making this stock look very good for a short. Cut your loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

RE is failing at the 50 day moving average, on strong volume. This stock topped in October and has sold off consistently on above average volume the entire way since then. The BOP went red during that time helping make the chart look pretty ugly with that heavy volume. However, the RS line has held up very well during the market’s selloff so I am not sure if it is too smart to try another short but our risk is so low to the potential reward I would feel horrible if I did not short this and it fell to its 2002 lows. Cut your loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

AMX is failing right at the 50 and 200 day moving average, on very strong volume. This stock is at a perfect inflection point as it has wedged higher on lower volume and then failed right at both key moving averages with a noticeable pick up in volume. BOP is not red anymore but it is still in a very low risk/high reward area. Cut your loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

MDU is failing at the 50 day moving average, on very strong volume. This stock is like the superman of the homebuilder stocks but if you look on a 7-day (it shows the distribution THE CLEAREST) chart you will see all of those big nasty red volume bars all last year and this year. That nasty distribution along with a weakening RS line confirms the nasty price and volume action. Cut your first loss with a close above the 50 day moving average and your final loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

YUM is following through on its 50 day moving average failure, on very strong volume. This stock is topping on very strong distribution and is now putting in a series of lower highs this year as it sells off. The BOP has gone red again confirming the nasty price and volume action. But the RS line is holding up quite well so that may make this a poor candidate. Cut your loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

ABB is breaking down below the 200 day moving average, again, on very strong volume. This chart is very ugly with all that bearish price action, huge distribution, and ugly max red BOP. However, I can’t load up on this stock as I don’t want to tie my money up in a $24 short. My best shorts, historically, have been over $50 but I do hit some great stocks that are low priced so it is worth at least getting a healthy amount. Cut your loss with a close above the 50 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

AGO is breaking down below the 50 day moving average, again, on very strong volume. The price action on this stock turned downright awful from October to November and after that it only got more odd as the stock chopped around in a very volatile fashion with very heavy distribution throughout the move. Today’s weak move with BOP still red as a beet gives the appearance that the stock is ready to rollover once again. Cut your loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

adding to existing ex-leaders short position: GOOG

GOOG is putting in a bearish reversal and failing at the 200 day moving average, on strong volume. I am already short a good amount of GOOG and really don’t want to short anymore without a low volume rally as I feel it has come down too far too fast. But the stock is still near the 200 DMA and it is having an ugly day on heavier volume which makes it seem weak enough to drop going into earnings. But with earnings coming tomorrow, I am not sure it is a good idea and there is still a VERY HIGH CHANCE I WILL NOT TAKE THIS SHORT. I have a few more hours to decide. If I take it, I will only add another $1,000. I already have enough and it is down 10 of the last 11 days making it too obvious a trade. It is also down 17 of the last 21 days, which is just too much. I would prefer it if newbies stay far away from this trade ahead of earnings. Cut your loss with a close above the 200 day moving average, if the stock does not move lower immediately.

Last 5 posts in Free Archives Shorts

Three New Short Positions And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions For Monday's Stock Market Session - February 29th, 2008
One New Short Position And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions For Friday's Stock Market Session - February 28th, 2008
Three New Short Positions For Thursday's Stock Market Session - February 27th, 2008
One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Short Position For Wednesday's Stock Market Session - February 26th, 2008
One New Short Position For Tuesday's Stock Market Session - February 25th, 2008

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

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2 Comments »

Comment by Karl Montevirgen Subscribed to comments via email

2008-01-31 17:55:16

Hello Joshua-

I just signed up my account with bigwavetrading today and am reviewing your short list and charts.

Although somewhat new to the market, I am familiar with reading charts (particularly candlestick charts and various oscillators), but am new with the charts that you are using. It has a lot of visual info, but I am unfamiliar with it.

Is there a page that you can refer me to that will help me follow your text analysis with the charts that you have posted?

Thank you!

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Comment by MauiTrader

2008-01-31 18:04:28

dont worry about all of that most of it is proprietary to worden

I just use it to confirm by seeing if the yellow line (moneystream) is in an uptrend or has positive divergence.

second line white is RS line from IBD (self-evident)

the color on the bottom is BOP…all i want is this: the more green the better. Take a look at my best longs from 99 in my past big winner section to see what i like to see.

I will still only use price and volume as you can see by reading. So dont worry about it but they are all in the Worden Help files or at http://www.worden.com.

I still use only price, volume, and moving averages. And in fact the bear side seems to be not right AT THIS MOMENT and we may need to wait a few weeks to months…so now you will see my longs and shorts.

After a while you will see how I dont use them.

oh yeah….

as for the blue/white line in the middel (TSV). I just want that line to be ABOVE the zero line for longs and below for shorts.

YOU ARE VERY WELCOME

if you have any more q’s let me know!!

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