It’s About Time!; Stocks Breakdown From The Triangle Consolidation (NYSE Reverses Its Breakout), On Much Heavier Volume

February 29, 2008 | 16 Comments

Well, I guess, all I can say is, so much for that rally. There were a lot of people that were very confident that the lows in this market were seen on 1/22 and 1/23. Those people that believe that is the case still, are living in serious denial about the true problems this market has. Unless you are only focused on the oil, gold, steel, metal, food, ag, machinery, or chemical stocks, there is no way anyone can be serious when they say they are bullish on this market. Everywhere I look I see some big damage that was caused by today’s selloff and the reality of the situation is very clear to me. This market is not a market to buy.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Bronze Commentary, Free Commentary

Three New Short Positions And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions For Monday’s Stock Market Session

February 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

It looks like that the mini-uptrend that the stock market has been gracing us with the past month has finally bitten the dust. While commodity stocks continue to look great and will continue to make good buys on low volume pullbacks. It appears the rest of the market is ready to take another turn down. If that is the case we should continue to keep our eyes out for stocks failing right at the key 50 and 200 day moving average line on strong volume or that are breaking down through these lines on very strong volume. Two past leaders, that might still be leading but it seems extremely unlikely, that I want to short so that they may rejoin my 02-07 bull market leaders in my shorts portfolio are RIMM and FSLR. I attempted to get a little bit earlier this year and they treated me poorly. But GOOG, AAPL, and BIDU have been very very very good to me. Another one I will be watching is AMZN. But it appears getting scared out of my short on 1/31 from the 1/25 short is going to come back to haunt me. It sure does look like we this market is ready to start trending down again. If that is the case, experienced investors can start to go back to either shorting stocks are looking for stocks that are close to a high reward/low risk short setup. Newbies, I still believe, if you have not proven to yourself that you can make a lot of money on the long side and do not have the proof via your brokerage statements that you can, that you should remain 75% to 100%. The only non-cash you should have is some commodity longs. Be careful out there and remember cash is king!!

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position, One New Speculative Long Position, And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Speculative CANSLIM Long Position For Monday’s Stock Market Session

February 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

The low volume mini-rally that has been part of this stock market since the 1/22 and 1/23 move off the lows has been very weak and I have made constant references to the volume being below average and thus probably leaving us with only a bear market rally. Well, as I patiently waited for, the market finally delivered what was expected and that was a nasty swoon to the downside with volume picking up well above average. That kind of action, coming from a prior downtrend is not good for longs and therefore I must continue to pound the table with you newbies and remind you that being 75% to 100% cash is king right now. For those that are experienced, you should obviously know by now, the only stocks that are safe enough to go long are the oils, foods, gold/silver, metals, steel, agriculture, and chemicals. Besides these commodity stocks, nothing is safe, in this market. Be very careful out there and if any experienced investor decides to go long any of these stocks on Monday, please make sure you use limit orders only as all three of these stocks are very thin; the two new stocks are EXTREMELY thin.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

SWIR 6-12-03/7-9-03 to 4-12-04

February 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

SWIR was a big winner for me as I liked this chart and the stock’s fundamentals. This was yet one of many HOT HOT stocks I had my eye on during this time and this one, like the rest, turned out no different. From the first purchase to the first sell the stock gained 253% and from the big purchase to first sell 156%, in four months. The second sell netted me gains of 377% and 246% respectively, in seven and a half months. However, from the first and big purchase to the ultimate top the stock gained 741% and 510% in only ten months, making this one of my top holdings in 2003.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2003

IFLO 5-30-03 to 2-27-04

February 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

IFO was a pretty big long when I went long but I sold a lot of my long position very quickly as there were a lot of beautiful charts and I wanted to diversify myself around the winners more because I wasn’t sure what would be “THE” huge winner. It was a good thing I did this because after my first big sell TASR showed up just a few weeks later. IFLO was still a huge winner. From my first purchase to first big sell the gain was a solid 111% in one month and two weeks. By the time the top came, the stock gained 341% in nine months.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2003

New Longs and Shorts for Feb 29th

February 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

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Posted by MarketSpeculator | Filed Under Current Picks

It Is All About Oil And This Very Weak Economy; Stocks Fall On More Subprime Bad News

February 28, 2008 | 4 Comments

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Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Bronze Commentary

One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position And One New Speculative Long Position For Friday’s Stock Market Session

February 28, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Both of these longs are very speculative and trade very few shares a day. Therefore, if you are an experienced active investor you must keep the longs small and use limit orders only. If you are a newbie you must stay away from these as they are both too speculative with the very low average daily volume and stock price under $20. Be careful out there in this choppy market. I will be back later on to complete the longs analysis.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New Short Position And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

February 28, 2008 | 5 Comments

All three of these shorts are in excellent high reward/low risk positions with all of them being right at their 50 and 200 day moving averages. The best thing about all three of these charts, also, is that they all have a good amount of distribution and red BOP that helps give these charts that extra punch in the mouth that turns them into a real nasty chart that could produce some huge gains if they just work the way they are supposed to–you know the way: TSRA, SGMS, CBEY, AAPL, and GOOG. Newbies, if you do not have a track record of making money on the long side, and yet you think you can make money on the short side, uhm, you might want to think of going to 100% cash. Only experienced trader should even be considering going short any of these below. The smartest newbies will understand that if they have not made a lot of money on the long side, which is much easier to do than on the short side, they are probably not going to do well on the short side. Once you have mastered the long side and can consistently make money and cut your losses like a robot, then and only then is it smart to attempt the other side of the trade. Being short requires you to be more precise with your timing, requires that you take profits faster as it falls, and requires you to suffer through a lot of pain sometimes as stocks short squeeze you out of some big gains sometimes. Bottom line: make sure you can find, buy, and sell for a profit your own longs, first, before trying to short this market. Be careful out there and remember cash is king. For the experienced cash should be high but you shouldn’t be shy with the commodity longs as long as they are in a safe high reward/low risk position.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

EGHT 10-30-03 to 11-28-03

February 28, 2008 | Leave a Comment

EGHT was not only HOT HOT HOT with all that max green BOP and huge accumulation before the bounce off the 50 day moving average. It was also hot because of the huge move it made in such a short amount of time. In a little under one month, EGHT gained 295% from the first buy and 238% from the second buy. An amazing return in an amazing stock. This is not the norm; this is the exception. But there are always a few in a raging bull market. This was just one.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2003