Before I move on I need to clarify one thing. I did not say that Bill Cara is an economist! I said that his economic analysys seems to have a good following.

His site is actually a free trading blog first and foremost, and within it he discusses macro issues. I stumbled upon it when looking at “Forbes Favorite” listings for trading blogs. He’s been on that list five years straight.

Good luck this week.

I would be weary of economists…its all in the charts!

Great postings everyone.

My dream is to hold EVERY stock I go long at least 12 months for long-term capital gains. However, the 200 DMA keeps me out of IMA, C, GS, and every other stock down 50% since November.

Thank you for the great feedback. Rest well knowing that this game, while NEVER easy, is nothing I ever worry about anymore. I know that there will always be 1999 and 2003 market environments that produce these HUGE winners that can give us annual returns of 500% and MUCH higher. I also know that in difficult markets like this, eventually a CMP builds a nice long base, breaks out, and runs to a 100% plus gain in a short time.

I have seen it too much, to not know it WILL happen again. And like I said, if it doesn’t, thank God I have learned how to short.

However, like Cramer says (but you must also do!) there is always a bull market somewhere. Well, he definitely has one right: AUY. So, so far so good.

ALOHA Bob! I look forward to watching your account and YOU grow. Which I think YOU growing is more important. Because you will NEVER forget these lessons and the day will come when it clicks, IF YOU STICK WITH IT, and you will get your own ‘past big winners.’

Thanks for the feedback!

I am new to your site i.e. within the past 40 days.

It is wonderful to finally find someone (you) who is ruthlessly honest with themselves and the market.

I have made every mistake one can make in dealing with the stock market. So I have learned that I (and no one else) am my own worst enemy.

Management of Risk needs to always come first.

I am very grateful to you for your realistic view of the world and the obvious passion you possess to help others!

E.g. fear and greed/mass psych of the market/fundamental analysis/ t.a./economic/ and so forth).

I am excited to learn from you and make some money.

It is so difficult to find someone who trades with the correct mindset and a time frame that I can work with.

So thanks again!!

Bob Martin

Bob, very “mind-bending.” I enjoyed the depth of the statement!!!

Extremely thought provoking. Makes me want to watch Terminator and the Matrix.

Ork, I believe you could be correct. The charts are “STARTING” to show this. However, I do not see this particular point in time as being a “blow-off.” There is still plenty of room to run.

The Article in Harper’s by Eric Janszen was an excellent read.

It may protend the future.

Maybe most of the next CANSLIM canidates will come from the Alternative Energy arena with Al Gore as the poster child.

I am sure Josh will help us in that regard.

I think the one that comes after Alternative Energy is likely to be Biotech. Computer power and DNA analysis will be so powerful in 10 to 15 years that it will launch with the help of venture capital and government another bubble.

Interestingly, maybe this coming bubble of Alternative Energy will be a focus on the world outside of us with its need of energy and supplying WALMART; whereas the following bubble of Biotech will be a focus on the world within our bodies and minds.

A random thought: I always thought of the Terminator Movies as Computer Hardware outside of ourselves where as the Matrix set of Movies are like (almost invisible) system software that framed our paradigm of the world around us.

It looks like the mass psychology of the people, governments, and the stock market (which really is mass psych applied to buying and selling) is to seek out God-like futures for us to place our hope in.

Another way for mankind to not live life fully in the present but instead to try to play God.

Best regards,

Bob Martin

There’s a guy I read (billcara.com) who is well-respected for his economic analysis, and he’s been calling nominally for 10,000 on the Dow and 2,000 on the Nasdaq before we can even think about putting in a bottom.

If you have time, you might be interested in his comments from Wednesday, pasted below (by the way HB&B means humongous banks and brokerages):

“HB&B got away with the problem that the asset backing was dubious at best for a time because some of those mortgages were maintained in good standing, and because the bankers were saying to their clients, “Trust us; we’re your banker”.

But they knew, or ought to have known because it was their professional responsibility to do so, that the collateral was deficient. It was only because they said their products held a certain value that the buyer accepted the price. The buyers were deceived, and now the world is about to see at least a trillion dollars of class-action law-suits against HB&B.

Legal action takes time to pursue and the result is often unknown. But in this case, the defense is virtually non-existent. The result is almost a foregone conclusion. What that means is that the capital that props up HB&B today will be removed tomorrow.

Its one person’s opinion but I think these banks are done like dinner. Kaput.

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs, which claims to be free and clear of the credit market crisis, dropped -2 pct in a heartbeat about 3:00pm, hitting a 171 handle. Two weeks ago GS was trading in the low to mid 190s. Three weeks ago, GS traded over 208. The image that comes to mind is rats jumping a sinking ship.

You will not hear this from Financial Entertainment TV.

That’s why I say, we trade prices. By doing so, we have been forced to live in the real world.

Last night, I pointed you to Glenn Beck’s concern over FDIC because you ought to be listening. There is no industry insurance in the US that is capable of saving the banking system. In recent months, the world saw there was no industry insurance in the UK that could save banks as the government, meaning the People, had to guarantee the debt of Northern Rock bank, which is one of many in trouble, which means that the People now have to save all the banks.

The amount of the People’s guarantee of the debts of Northern Rock – a single bank in England that I’d say 99 pct of Americans had never heard of before – was many times larger than the total value of the FDIC industry insurance for all the banks in the United States. So, what does that say about the crisis in America?

Bankers rely on what I have referred to as the credit ring. If enough assets go bad, meaning that the bank cannot collect on their holdings, the bank fails, which was the case at Northern Rock. But one bank is also the customer of another bank, which means that when Bank #1 fails, Bank #2 is in trouble, and so on down the line.

The notion of “systemic failure” at HB&B is like a nuclear reaction in silence. By that I mean, HB&B will not – can not – tell you they are insolvent. Bank #2 will report to its regulator that the loans of Bank #1 are good, and they will do that until Bank #1 closes its doors, which will not happen as long as FDIC has some money in the cash register or the Treasury Secretary (the former head of Goldman Sachs, who I’m guessing is leaking word to his friends that the good ship America hit an iceberg) is able to run the 1-800-HELP flag up the pole for bankers under the pretense of doing same for so-called lowly sub-prime “liar loan” offenders.

HB&B controls Other People’s Money in the trillions. In less than the blink of an eye, a cornered rat will use that money to push up stock prices (and US Treasury prices since the “government will always pay”).

So, while Mom & Pop are watching serious problems hit the economic and corporate world, they cannot understand why prices of stocks are so high. I said it before: prices are where they are because HB&B has put them there. But if you look at the 12-month performance table in my Daily Report, look at where XLF (Financial sector dominated by HB&B) stands in relation to the other sectors. It’s a disaster for shareholders.

But think for a moment which shareholders. Do you really think these HB&B executives don’t know what’s going down, and, while keeping mum, have not been selling their own stakes in their banks?

Remember the word credulity syndrome: don’t get afflicted. Not to pick on one banker and one bank, do yourself the favor of checking the personal trading record of one of Financial Entertainment TV’s favorite bankers and Talking Heads, Dr. Sherry Cooper.

Ask yourself why she disposed of so much BMO stock at the top of the stock cycle for BMO, which co-incidentally was when all the credit market kafuffle hit the news.

Dr. Cooper may be a fine person – I wouldn’t know – but I surmise she is much like any banker – any human being – who is risk averse when facing reality. The issue isn’t about individual bankers, including Talking Head bankers, it’s about the honesty of the relationship between the bank and its stakeholders – depositors, shareholders, bond holders, employees and vendors.

My point to all this is that I don’t think there is near enough honesty at HB&B today, and their insurance is not capable of holding the industry together. When the People realize who ultimately will be holding the bag, they too will do what Dr. Sherry Cooper did, and sell their stocks. There is a big liquidity crisis on the horizon. I cannot say more other than I believe it will become apparent as soon as the current commodity bubble pops.

Remember, gold is the last dancer off the floor, and then the music stops…”