A Conversation About The Market With A Young Trader In My Chat Room

[18:38:15] mstahr has entered the room “BWT Lobby”
[18:38:29] mstahr: anybody in?
[19:04:07] JoshuaHayes: hello
[19:04:14] JoshuaHayes: just got back from surfing Honolua Bay and now watching football
[19:04:16] JoshuaHayes: and making the video
[19:06:01] mstahr: yo JH
[19:07:34] mstahr: i’ve decided to stop reading most blogs
[19:07:48] mstahr: its unbelievable what most are like
[19:07:50] JoshuaHayes: nice buddy
[19:07:55] JoshuaHayes: those charts are all you need
[19:07:58] mstahr: saying they called the top
[19:08:06] JoshuaHayes: after they missed a rally
[19:08:08] JoshuaHayes: where stocks like GNVC
[19:08:11] JoshuaHayes: went up 150%
[19:08:12] JoshuaHayes: lol
[19:08:14] mstahr: they’re like ‘yeeaaa that’s right we CALLED the top………..just ignore the 50 other times before getting it right’
[19:08:19] JoshuaHayes: RIGHT!
[19:08:24] JoshuaHayes: you hit that on the freaking head!
[19:08:28] JoshuaHayes: exactly
[19:08:32] mstahr: the thing is
[19:08:37] JoshuaHayes: well you are getting it YOUNG and that is sick/great
[19:08:40] mstahr: they probably do actually really believe they called it
[19:08:49] JoshuaHayes: yes scary
[19:08:56] mstahr: i doubt it comes into their heads how retarded it is
[19:09:00] JoshuaHayes: it doesn’t
[19:09:03] mstahr: lol thanks
[19:09:04] JoshuaHayes: and we are all VERY stupid
[19:09:05] JoshuaHayes: to them
[19:09:06] JoshuaHayes: and ignorant
[19:09:11] JoshuaHayes: and we don’t know anything
[19:09:12] JoshuaHayes: trust me
[19:09:39] JoshuaHayes: i9 am really stupid to them
[19:09:41] mstahr: what happens most of the time with fundamental analysis (which is what 90% of financial blogs are)
[19:09:44] JoshuaHayes: because i actually believe in charts
[19:09:54] mstahr: is that they already have an idea in their head before they look at the situation
[19:10:05] mstahr: then they only notice the ‘evidence’ that supports their existing bias
[19:10:18] JoshuaHayes: right
[19:10:23] JoshuaHayes: all that matters is price
[19:10:26] JoshuaHayes: are you making money today?
[19:10:27] JoshuaHayes: however
[19:10:31] JoshuaHayes: that is lost on all these “pros”
[19:10:35] JoshuaHayes: this is why i left NYC
[19:10:36] JoshuaHayes: i KNEW
[19:10:44] JoshuaHayes: if i stayed i would eventually be cast away
[19:10:48] JoshuaHayes: no matter how well i did
[19:10:57] mstahr: yea i understand that
[19:11:09] mstahr: people like to be told why things are happening/will happen
[19:11:13] mstahr: like more than just with a chart
[19:11:15] JoshuaHayes: yes
[19:11:19] JoshuaHayes: charts seems “too simple”
[19:11:22] JoshuaHayes: but simple is beautiful
[19:11:28] mstahr: they want someone to write a huge thing saying what the situation is and whats going to happen
[19:11:39] JoshuaHayes: you are 100% correct
[19:12:03] mstahr: the best hedge funds dont say much in their reports
[19:12:05] JoshuaHayes: very bright my friend
[19:12:07] JoshuaHayes: right
[19:12:15] mstahr: they just have some charts and a brief overview
[19:12:16] JoshuaHayes: the best know it is pretty cut and dry
[19:12:20] mstahr: lol thank you josh but you flatter me
[19:15:31] JoshuaHayes: ha
[19:15:34] JoshuaHayes: i knew you would be saying that
[19:15:41] JoshuaHayes: you caught me before i ccould post:
[19:15:47] JoshuaHayes: “i am not just stroking your ego either”
[19:15:52] JoshuaHayes: nice
[19:15:59] JoshuaHayes: everything you say is true
[19:16:05] JoshuaHayes: i did not turn bearish until THUR
[19:16:17] JoshuaHayes: I did not worry about the uptrend until we starting seeing CHURNING on the Nasdaq
[19:16:27] JoshuaHayes: and even then I was still going long stocks because stocks WERE MOVING UP
[19:16:35] JoshuaHayes: only after THUR did the tone COMPLETELY change
[19:16:42] JoshuaHayes: and FRI we had a follow-through on that
[19:16:48] JoshuaHayes: do i know how long it will last? no
[19:16:53] JoshuaHayes: do we know how far we will fall? no
[19:16:55] JoshuaHayes: NOBODY does
[19:17:00] JoshuaHayes: however i am sure when we bottom
[19:17:05] JoshuaHayes: earnings will be bad
[19:17:09] JoshuaHayes: IF this is a new bear
[19:17:16] JoshuaHayes: if it is a pullback, our charts WILL tell us what to do
[19:17:18] JoshuaHayes: like always
[19:17:27] JoshuaHayes: they are reliable i would say 50% of the time
[19:17:36] JoshuaHayes: and you only need to be right 25% of the time with proper cut losses
[19:17:48] JoshuaHayes: and if you study my recent longs and my history you will see we are right around 60% of the time
[19:17:48] mstahr: yep
[19:17:54] JoshuaHayes: so when you learn to cut losses correctly
[19:18:04] JoshuaHayes: and money manage properly this really is a powerful methodology
[19:18:06] JoshuaHayes: and remember
[19:18:08] JoshuaHayes: IT IS NOT MINE
[19:18:13] JoshuaHayes: it is simply taken from the best
[19:18:20] JoshuaHayes: with a little BOP from telecharts