No New Long Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

February 14, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Well today came as NO SURPRISE to me as this market has been doing this same dance for about a month now. As soon as strength gets moving, it stops, and as soon as stocks start selling off for real, they bounce. This is completely typical of a market changing from one major trend to another. Every bull market that turns into a bear market goes through many periods of backing and filling like this one. To see this action in play, study the April 2000 to August 2000 rally, the January 2001 rally, and the post-9/11 rally. All three times value investors declared bottoms. All three times they were wrong. They were wrong then and they are wrong now. Major tops take a long time to play out. You can not have a five year bull market, without any 20% pullbacks, and then have a three month bear market and be done with it. It is impossible for that scenario to happen. This is a bear market bounce that has about 50 stocks that are very nice looking doing very well. Besides those 50 or so stocks, the other 6950 stocks that I follow look like crap. For instance, everyone, loves DRYS. How come when I was long no one talked about this stock? But now after a HUGE volume distribution campaign from the end of October to the middle of January, all of a sudden, a lot of people are interested in this stock. You know the 60% bounce is great and you can play that if you want to. But that just isn’t my style. I was long DRYS for two months and that produced a 110% gain for me. But a lot of people are talking about this stock now like it is brand new. DRYS is like the rest of the stocks everyone talks about: we have already heard of them. SLH and CMED were nice last night and they held up today which should be bullish for these stocks, even if we roll right back over on the general market indexes. Be careful out there and make sure you have at least 25% cash in your portfolio. Newbies, I prefer you guys to have at least 50%, while this market continues its daily insanity with little real follow-through. HAPPY VALENTINES DAY!!!! XOXOXOXOXO

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Two New CANSLIM Long Position, Two New Very Speculative Long Positions, And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Long Position

February 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment

The two longs I am buying a large size of will be SLH and CMED. SPW is going to be another larger add but will be much smaller than even the second buy due to there being NO volume. TECUB and COIN are both WAY TOO speculative to be good long for newbies. I am late scanning my IBD CANSLIM list as I had to go out shopping for my gf for Valentines day. I hope you all understand. Do not be shy with CMED and SLH.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New CANSLIM Long Position And One New Speculative Long Position For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

February 12, 2008 | Leave a Comment

I really like PRXL the stock as the chart and the fundamentals are both very bullish. That along with it being heavily accumulated by mutual funds and in one of the top performing sectors the past six months (Medical/Dental-services) makes this a great long. However, the chart is very nice but it isn’t perfect so there is no reason to load up. Especially with the stock market acting so lame (where are the follow-through days? there are none). IMAX is a horrible stock but this is a very pretty chart, and with it being in an uptrend bouncing off the 50 day moving average, this is definitely worth a poke. But nothing else more and newbies should avoid it like the plague.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New CANSLIM Long Position, One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position, And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Long Position For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

February 11, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Both of the new longs look fantastic but, of course, they have flaws. NEU is breaking out of a chart pattern I really can not explain and of course just as I was afraid SPW is starting to make its move WITHOUT the volume. Normally the moves that you see in SPW are accompanied by a huge surge in volume making them some of the best longs that you can take. But SPW isn’t perfect with that lower volume and I guess with BOP not being max green it really doesn’t matter. The RS line on both NEU and SPW are extremely impressive with both RS lines well into new high ground. That kind of positive divergence should be very bullish for both stocks as long as the market continues to trend up. Heck, the stocks will probably move higher even with lower prices. But in case they do not MAKE SURE YOU READ WHERE THE FINAL CUT LOSS AREAS ARE. This isn’t rocket science. Don’t try to make this harder than what it is. CREE has been talked about A TON already so there is nothing I am adding here to the discussion. XTLB is just a beauty but with the poor fundamentals it is hard buying a lot of it up here.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New CANSLIM Long Position, One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position, One New Speculative Long Position, And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Long Positions For Monday’s Stock Market Session

February 8, 2008 | Leave a Comment

In the longs section tonight I like to think of it as the “what could have been” longs selections. There are two new longs here that I have been long and the first long MTL I should have never sold but the way it looked on 1/16 on an arithmetic chart going back to 2005 it seemed clear that the stock was done and the big gains were over. If you asked me to pick a chart that is topping that day I would have told you MTL. What is really bad about that is that I sold the last of my shares that day for a 61% gain in three-and-a-half months which was well above the 200 DMA and my purchase price. Therefore, I should still be long and if that would have been the case my gain would be a sweet 94% gain. Instead I have to jump back in, since I am out. Now is it stupid that I sold lower and bought higher? Heck no. This is something pros understand. On 1/16 the stock looked like it was ready to fall 50% making it seem way too risky to hold. Now, however, it is bouncing off the 50 DMA and breaking out to new highs making this one of the most bullish chart patterns there is. So if I pass here and it runs to 200, I will feel foolish for not buying it. So even though there were some tough lessons to learn here, this stock still has been very good to me and has taught all of us some valuable lesson about assuming and instead reacting. Hopefully, CHDX can hold this breakout attempt as last time it could not. This stock is definitely nothing to get too excited about and newbies should keep it small due to the inherent risk in a pullback to the 50 DMA. JRCC is just a very bullish chart in a top sector that is doing excellent in this bad market. Two metal longs out of three longs. Something is going right there! Be careful out there and do not put a lot in any of these. If you do, MTL is your only option. As for CREE, you already know how much I like it compared to the rest of the crap out there. But still in this market, you can’t load up. You just can’t.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New CANSLIM Long Position, Two New Speculative CANSLIM Long Positions, And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Long Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

February 7, 2008 | Leave a Comment

I have to admit, I do like all of the chart patterns I see here tonight. But the problem with that is that I only like every chart pattern here tonight! I do not love anything that I see. What I like to do in bear markets–which reminds me to not buy too early–is to always review my best trades which are slowly being added to the ‘past big winners’ page. By doing this I can remind myself of what HOT charts are supposed to look like and therefore when I see the next green chart I will not get all crazy and go and load up. By constantly looking at my past big winners, I am reminded that the patterns we see tonight are not the same patterns that are seen before a stock launches a huge run. I mean it is always possible we could get some great gains with these–why else would I be going long; I am not doing it to pay the commissions–but I don’t think any of these will return 300% in a few months. I think if we could get 50% we should be very happy and that is what I expect from all of these. If they don’t work, like always and forever, use the cut loss areas to get out of a stock. We still do not have a follow-through day and besides FFH there is nothing out there worth drooling over. The value boys can continue to buy their values. I will wait till things are more clear and the shorts stop making me such nice coin (you like that term?). I am not personally loading up on any of these but I am not being shy with BVN or CREE. URBN has great fundamentals but I am not that insanely excited about the chart. CMP is also very pretty on the short term and the bounce in on the biggest volume I can see in a long time. However, the chart is now more volatile and random than it was. And that is enough to keep me away. The charts are supposed to “tighten” up not get wider and more loose. ATEC should probably be left to the pros with that very low average daily volume. If you go long that stock, use a limit order only.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New Very Speculative CANSLIM Long Position And One New Speculative Long Position For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

February 6, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Please, folks, don’t go long these unless you really like what you see and you want action. I have an addiction to trading and I can not stand not buying something and watching it fly. That is why I would rather buy $500 of a stock in a $1,000,000 port than not doing anything at all. 99.9% of you can NOT do this and you should not. I have an insane ability to monitor an extraordinary amount of stocks unlike anyone I have ever met. But when I decide to buy a lot of something, you will know. SPW was one of my biggest long positions in a very long time and I cut it all this AM due to it closing below the 50 DMA. But now with it setting up again, if it breaks out, I will have no qualms buying higher as the chart is wonderful and the gains could be very good in this market. So SPW might have been cut but it is still a possible long again. I know this is hard for some of you to understand but if I pass up on SPW on the next breakout and it goes up 200% I am going to be pissed (not really but whatever) and if I do not cut my loss and it pulls a CSCO then I am going to be even more upset. But with what we have tonight there is nothing I have to be worried about as the stocks are not the quality that leaves me with a lot of confidence to load up. Therefore, I am keeping these under a thousand dollars which is very tiny and I recommend newbies just sit back and watch as this market favors the bears. Also I am going to start posting my past big winners from the 2002-2004 bull market and if you will study those charts the next time you see them you will know that I will be buying a lot of them. Don’t forget to check there sometime near the closing bell for the first one of many. Also! Notice how there were not that many in 2002? Patience.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New Speculative Long Position And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Long Position For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

February 5, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Both of these are too speculative to be worth going long for you newbies out there. And if you do decide to go long make sure you keep these both very small. SNG is too low priced with poor fundamentals and ILMN is too risky to buy a lot of up here with the deterioration in EPS the past two quarters. I can not stress how important it is to keep a very healthy level of cash here. I only have 15% of my account in longs and most of that was in four stocks. And after today I am sure the % of my account in longs will be less.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

Two New Speculative Long Positions And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Speculative CANSLIM Long Position For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

February 4, 2008 | Leave a Comment

The two new longs both have plenty of flaws within their charts that will prevent me from making any meaningful size bet in either one. However, I am not going to be shy either with the EPS and sales growing so nicely in the most recent quarter for both stocks. They definitely have potential. PTEC isn’t perfect either but its fundamentals are better and the chart does have very strong accumulation within it. The most recent breakout today isn’t from a very long base so unless the market continues to trend higher strongly this breakout might not hold. So basically, once again, without that real powerful follow-through or a new crop of brand new innovative technological leaders we just have some mediocre longs that are not worth large positions in our portfolios. Without some fresh leadership or a clear downtrend, cash continues to be king.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

One New CANSLIM Long Position, One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position, And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Long Positions For Monday’s Stock Market Session

February 2, 2008 | Leave a Comment

All of these longs are actually quite nice and all have one thing in common. They are all from very strong sectors that have been moving up the charts of the IBD 197 industry groups. There is not one stock that I saw in my scans with a pretty chart that came from anything but a bear market sector. And as I will remind you (for those that think we have a bottom in the market) bear market rallies are easily spotted by the quality of longs that appear in the scans as we move along. The simple fact that the sectors that do very well in bear markets are the sectors that are making the most impressive gains on this rally. That is your clearest of clear tells that this is not a fresh start to a brand new rally that is going to launch the stocks that go on to become histories biggest winners. No, this is simply a bear market rally that is going to suck in the retail crowd that believes stocks like GOOG AAPL RIMM and BIDU are finally cheap enough to buy. These are the stocks I will short when this rally is done. And while we wait for that to happen to those stocks, we have some leading stocks that do not have any resistance to deal with right now. There is one chart below that I like a lot and those familiar with me know which one that is. But it still is not perfect, by any means and therefore there is no reason to get nuts. The general trend of the stock market is not nice enough to do that.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Longs

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