DRYS 8-22-07 to 10-29-07

August 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment

DRYS was a straight CANSLIM play, bounce and breakout off the 50 DMA. For those of you that think BOP wasn’t that nice when it broke out, you are right. But remember I use CANSLIM and a form of momentum trading the HOT HOT HOT beautiful max green BOP filled charts. Sometimes you get both or sometimes you get a little of both. But this time is was straight CANSLIM on a stock with an EPS I believe was 99 and a RS rating I believe was 99. If they were not 99, they were 98’s. The bottom line is I can not ever pass on a breakout in a CANSLIM stock that is breaking out and bouncing off the 50 DMA. If you look at the trend of the market you can see the downtrend ended in August. We soon had a VERY WEAK Follow-Through Day (which hinted that the rally was close to dead) BUT there were a few CANSLIM stocks breaking out and a beauty setting up for what was our last perfect PAST BIG WINNER (APPY). That is why it was good to go long that FTD; because there were stocks still breaking out and setting up in sound patterns. Now after that November to January selloff and wild and chopping churning since January, there are barely any charts that look right with heavy accumulation and little to none distribution. This market is much uglier than what it was before the top. DRYS in two months and one week produced a strong 102% return in a very low VIX environment in a market that was on its last legs. Quite impressive.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2007

VDSI 1-4-07 to 10-15-07

August 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment

VDSI was a pretty clear cut CANSLIM long as it bounced right off the 50 DMA, broke out of a beautiful long term base and a short-term ascending base making it an easy choice to get long. Right after going long, the stock immediately shot up 20% which gave it a requirement that any stock up 20% in one week after your buy needs to be held at least 5-8 weeks. This only goes for CANSLIM stocks, not lower quality stocks. This stock was clearly a near-perfect CANSLIM long and I am disappointed I did not buy more but I was still in with a decent size position so I don’t have too much to complain about. As you can tell the stairstep the whole way up rode the 50 DMA like a champ. Ther were only a few times it tried to go below the 50 DMA and as you can see it showed bullish action both times it flirted with it. From the buy to the top, the stock gained 231% in nine months and two weeks. How could you tell it was topping? A weekly arithmetic chart clearly showed it going into a climax run and September and October started to see heavy distribution followed by lower volume rallies. These two tells after a 200% run are always going to be warning signs that a stock is close to a top.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2007

MTL 9-27-07 to 12-26-07

August 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment

MTL is a lesson learned on selling too early soon after you see the stock top out (which I thought was the ultimate top) it broke hard below the 50 DMA. Since we were in a bear market I did not wait to see what might happen if the selling picked up so I sold my final shares. But teaching the importance of holding a leading CANSLIM stock till it breaches the 200 DMA (if it does not give climax run signals like this one did not) you should always hold some for more gains. Had I done that instead of taking 100% from buy to top (three months), I could have made 232% in eight months, in the middle of a topping market. As you can see not too much longer MTL did in fact close below the 200 DMA. If you would have sold there you could have taken your final sell with a 128% gain a little under ten months, in the middle of a choppy go nowhere market. But if you were a “hopeful” fool and decided that you would see how it would act around the 200 DMA, you would have woken up to a RUDE AWAKENING on 8/15/08 as the stock CRASHED 37%. This is why you take profits on the way up and the reason I always use the 200 DMA as my final line in the sand. I never hold ANY stock below the 200 DMA–that means NEVER! I made a small mistake with this one and it cost me double the run it fully made. Lesson learned!

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2007

XCO 5-30-08 to 7-1-08

August 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Event though I knew oil was topping (review my comments in the market commentaries when oil topped) soon, I know that some of the best big winners are the late stocks that make big surges. XCO bounced right off the 50 DMA, had strong fundamentals, and as you can see was preceded by a ton of accumulation and strong green to max green BOP along the way. Right before the bounce off the 50 DMA you will notice volume contracted. This is what made this a clear easy stock to go heavily long. Sadly, like I have been saying, the VIX is too low to give that 200-300% pop that used to come from patterns like this (those returns will return after the bear is done) but I still knew we could possibly have some big gains (remember returns in 2008 are nothing like they were in 2003) out of this CANSLIM quality long. If you went long, which most platinum members did, you received a nice 52% gain in only one month. I know it was short and that the stock gave few signs of topping but still it was nice to get some normal return in a market that has rewarded nothing. Your only key that it would be topping (but no one could no it was going to be the ultimate top) was by looking at a weekly arithmetic chart. There you can see the stock raced up the chart quite fast compared to past rallies and that was your clear sell signal. Especially with this happening in a bear market. I know it isn’t easy to learn when to sell but AFTER TIME AND HARD WORK you figure it out.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2008

TZOO 5-14-04 to 12-27-04

August 16, 2008 | 1 Comment

TZOO moved too much from each buy point to be a large buy but I still was not afraid to buy the breakouts as there was considerable amount of huge accumulation to go along with amazing fundamentals. From the first buy to the ultimate top of the move this stock gained 617% in seven months and two weeks. This was quite a remarkable run for such a well followed stock. Too bad most people entered as it topped. From the second buy point to the top I received a nice 218% gain in four months and two weeks. No matter which breakout you bought, even with prices up over 20% on each move, it was a good move. This stock was loaded with clear accumulation and had two clear areas to get long. Those that bought at the top should remember a stock making new highs for a prolonged period of time, and it is doing so on lower volume, is not a good buy. Especially when max green BOP goes yellow.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2004

One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position And One New Speculative Long Position For Monday’s Stock Market Session

August 15, 2008 | Leave a Comment

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Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Silver Longs

No New Long Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

August 14, 2008 | Leave a Comment

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Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Silver Longs

One New CANSLIM Long Position And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Speculative CANSLIM Long Position For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

August 13, 2008 | 1 Comment

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Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Silver Longs

NAVR 4-14-04 to 1-11-05

August 13, 2008 | Leave a Comment

NAVR was a bit sloppy to what I normal like to see on a breakout (as the BOP was not green to max green in the base) but the blastoff to a new price high and bounce right off the 50 DMA on the price, volume, BOP, Moneystream, and RS surge could not be ignored. In a little under nine months, NAVR raced up 133%. It was not a huge gain but it was an easy gain as the breakout was near perfect (even if the base was not) and the uptrend was steady and smooth.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Best of 2004