DRYS 8-22-07 to 10-29-07
August 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment
DRYS was a straight CANSLIM play, bounce and breakout off the 50 DMA. For those of you that think BOP wasn’t that nice when it broke out, you are right. But remember I use CANSLIM and a form of momentum trading the HOT HOT HOT beautiful max green BOP filled charts. Sometimes you get both or sometimes you get a little of both. But this time is was straight CANSLIM on a stock with an EPS I believe was 99 and a RS rating I believe was 99. If they were not 99, they were 98’s. The bottom line is I can not ever pass on a breakout in a CANSLIM stock that is breaking out and bouncing off the 50 DMA. If you look at the trend of the market you can see the downtrend ended in August. We soon had a VERY WEAK Follow-Through Day (which hinted that the rally was close to dead) BUT there were a few CANSLIM stocks breaking out and a beauty setting up for what was our last perfect PAST BIG WINNER (APPY). That is why it was good to go long that FTD; because there were stocks still breaking out and setting up in sound patterns. Now after that November to January selloff and wild and chopping churning since January, there are barely any charts that look right with heavy accumulation and little to none distribution. This market is much uglier than what it was before the top. DRYS in two months and one week produced a strong 102% return in a very low VIX environment in a market that was on its last legs. Quite impressive.
VDSI 1-4-07 to 10-15-07
August 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment
VDSI was a pretty clear cut CANSLIM long as it bounced right off the 50 DMA, broke out of a beautiful long term base and a short-term ascending base making it an easy choice to get long. Right after going long, the stock immediately shot up 20% which gave it a requirement that any stock up 20% in one week after your buy needs to be held at least 5-8 weeks. This only goes for CANSLIM stocks, not lower quality stocks. This stock was clearly a near-perfect CANSLIM long and I am disappointed I did not buy more but I was still in with a decent size position so I don’t have too much to complain about. As you can tell the stairstep the whole way up rode the 50 DMA like a champ. Ther were only a few times it tried to go below the 50 DMA and as you can see it showed bullish action both times it flirted with it. From the buy to the top, the stock gained 231% in nine months and two weeks. How could you tell it was topping? A weekly arithmetic chart clearly showed it going into a climax run and September and October started to see heavy distribution followed by lower volume rallies. These two tells after a 200% run are always going to be warning signs that a stock is close to a top.
MTL 9-27-07 to 12-26-07
August 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment
MTL is a lesson learned on selling too early soon after you see the stock top out (which I thought was the ultimate top) it broke hard below the 50 DMA. Since we were in a bear market I did not wait to see what might happen if the selling picked up so I sold my final shares. But teaching the importance of holding a leading CANSLIM stock till it breaches the 200 DMA (if it does not give climax run signals like this one did not) you should always hold some for more gains. Had I done that instead of taking 100% from buy to top (three months), I could have made 232% in eight months, in the middle of a topping market. As you can see not too much longer MTL did in fact close below the 200 DMA. If you would have sold there you could have taken your final sell with a 128% gain a little under ten months, in the middle of a choppy go nowhere market. But if you were a “hopeful” fool and decided that you would see how it would act around the 200 DMA, you would have woken up to a RUDE AWAKENING on 8/15/08 as the stock CRASHED 37%. This is why you take profits on the way up and the reason I always use the 200 DMA as my final line in the sand. I never hold ANY stock below the 200 DMA–that means NEVER! I made a small mistake with this one and it cost me double the run it fully made. Lesson learned!
FSLR 5-22-07 to 12-26-07
August 8, 2008 | Leave a Comment
FSLR was a monster CANSLIM stock that gave a great buy point and was pretty easy to hold the whole way up. Those that followed me into this CANSLIM gem profited handsomely as the stock rose 326% from this purchase to the December top of the current move. That 326% only took seven months to come to fruition.
OIIM 6-28-07 to 10-18-07
July 31, 2008 | Leave a Comment
OIIM was a past big winner because the buy signal was so clearly obvious. Even though only a 50% gain was made you can tell by looking at the pattern you should know via the other “past big winners” that this one had the possibility of becoming a monster. Too bad it was 2007 and right before a vicious bear market.
TRCR 1-12-07/3-2-07 to 7-16-07
June 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment
TRCR was a very small buy with my initial position but with my second and third purchase I soon had a large position of a very beautiful stock chart pattern that was making me money. This was not the kind of stock to load up on as it was not a CANSLIM quality long at all or the breakout/bounce was not perfect on max green BOP and huge volume. Instead it was a clearly obvious beautiful chart under a ton of accumulation and I knew I had to get long on the lower volume moves or else I might miss my chance to get long. That was so true as the stock blasted out and took off. From the very first purchase in January to the top in August the stock gained 510% in a little over six months. However, I only had 100 shares there and not the 1000 share position that was taken in both March and April. From the March buy to the top, TRCR gained 225% in four-months-and-two-weeks.
RICK 10-10-07 to 12-26-07
June 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment
RICK was not the most perfect long compared to what we used to get but that is the point right there. What we used to get is not what we get now. That probably means our market is in for some rough times. However, during this period of time, while the Nasdaq was trending lower, RICK shined through as its very pretty chart produced a 145% gain in two-and-a-half months. Like I said the chart wasn’t perfect but during this time this stock clearly stood out. Some of my experienced members also came along for the ride so that proves that if you just keep your eye out you will find these too.
APPY 9-19-07 to 10-26-07
June 4, 2008 | Leave a Comment
APPY was a very special long for me because I kept the excitement about the chart down to see if anyone else would notice it. I was right. Nobody did and the only people, besides those that have learned from these Past Big Winners, that did were those in the platinum chat room who happened to be around at the time I signaled its near perfection. Near perfection it was but the run didn’t last long as the market quickly turned into a bear market thus ending this stock just as quickly as it started. However, from the start to finish, APPY put in an impressive 150% move in one month and one week. From my big purchase to the top the stock returned 130% and in this current market environment you better believe that qualifies this one, along with the near perfection–9.5-out-of-ten–of this chart pattern, as a Past Big Winner.
AFSI 4-12-07 to 7-9-07
May 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment
AFSI was by far my largest long position in 2007 as this chart was about as near-perfect as they can get for an IPO. It was a very easy decision to load up on this one (It only got to 15% of the portfolio due to the low VIX and low volume in the overall market). However, it was still big enough to make a strong impact on my accounts. From the start to the finish, AFSI gained 89%, 85%, and 73% respectively, from each of my longs, in three months. It wasn’t a huge Monster Stock but considering the horrible low-VIX environment that we have been in since 2006 it was definitely a big winner. This is the difference between a Monster Stock at the start of a bull market (TASR ‘03) and a Monster Stock near the end of a bull market (AFSI ‘07).
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