Three New Short Positions And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions For Monday’s Stock Market Session

February 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

It looks like that the mini-uptrend that the stock market has been gracing us with the past month has finally bitten the dust. While commodity stocks continue to look great and will continue to make good buys on low volume pullbacks. It appears the rest of the market is ready to take another turn down. If that is the case we should continue to keep our eyes out for stocks failing right at the key 50 and 200 day moving average line on strong volume or that are breaking down through these lines on very strong volume. Two past leaders, that might still be leading but it seems extremely unlikely, that I want to short so that they may rejoin my 02-07 bull market leaders in my shorts portfolio are RIMM and FSLR. I attempted to get a little bit earlier this year and they treated me poorly. But GOOG, AAPL, and BIDU have been very very very good to me. Another one I will be watching is AMZN. But it appears getting scared out of my short on 1/31 from the 1/25 short is going to come back to haunt me. It sure does look like we this market is ready to start trending down again. If that is the case, experienced investors can start to go back to either shorting stocks are looking for stocks that are close to a high reward/low risk short setup. Newbies, I still believe, if you have not proven to yourself that you can make a lot of money on the long side and do not have the proof via your brokerage statements that you can, that you should remain 75% to 100%. The only non-cash you should have is some commodity longs. Be careful out there and remember cash is king!!

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

February 28, 2008 | 5 Comments

All three of these shorts are in excellent high reward/low risk positions with all of them being right at their 50 and 200 day moving averages. The best thing about all three of these charts, also, is that they all have a good amount of distribution and red BOP that helps give these charts that extra punch in the mouth that turns them into a real nasty chart that could produce some huge gains if they just work the way they are supposed to–you know the way: TSRA, SGMS, CBEY, AAPL, and GOOG. Newbies, if you do not have a track record of making money on the long side, and yet you think you can make money on the short side, uhm, you might want to think of going to 100% cash. Only experienced trader should even be considering going short any of these below. The smartest newbies will understand that if they have not made a lot of money on the long side, which is much easier to do than on the short side, they are probably not going to do well on the short side. Once you have mastered the long side and can consistently make money and cut your losses like a robot, then and only then is it smart to attempt the other side of the trade. Being short requires you to be more precise with your timing, requires that you take profits faster as it falls, and requires you to suffer through a lot of pain sometimes as stocks short squeeze you out of some big gains sometimes. Bottom line: make sure you can find, buy, and sell for a profit your own longs, first, before trying to short this market. Be careful out there and remember cash is king. For the experienced cash should be high but you shouldn’t be shy with the commodity longs as long as they are in a safe high reward/low risk position.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Three New Short Positions For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

February 27, 2008 | Leave a Comment

I am keeping all of these shorts small as the market is still in a bear market rally. But, I have to admit, there are a lot more people out there that are bullish on stocks and after contemplating a market top are now for sure that the stock market has bottomed. Well, while I doubt we have seen the lows for the market, I still never fight the trend and the trend right now is up in the short-term trend making shorts more risky (unless its name is TSRA) at this point. AKR is my favorite due to the slow long-term rollover, GLNG and CKP are both less appealing due to the chart patterns not being extremely weak. But the patterns are still very solid high reward/low risk short patterns. It will just be up to the market if these work. Right now, cash is king and the best example of that being proof it how HLEX and TSRA can form similar chart patterns but have two very different outcomes. If you went short HLEX expecting a TSRA type of return, you were left very confused by the EOD. And that is this market wrapped up in a nutshell. Short a little, get long commodities, and keep a lot of cash on hand for an easier market (a market in an uptrend for longs and a market in a downtrend for shorts. For about the past month, we have gone nowhere!

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Short Position For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

February 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Well, after the wonderful gift that TSRA provided us last night I guess we can’t expect that from this one. Though it would be very nice. However, so those who are only a silver subscriber, I will let you know that I am covering 50% of the TSRA short and I am covering 25% of my GOOG short from 1/4. This should help give you an idea of where and how I like to cover my shorts. Obviously, I will hold the rest expecting lower prices but with the stocks down so much already a vicious rally could definitely hit both of these stocks. And since we can not predict the future (don’t forget Jim Cramer can not, Jim Rogers can not, NOBODY CAN!) we can only prepare for both outcomes. So I will hold some TSRA and GOOG expecting those lower prices but will cover a good amount, since they are down a LOT already. For future references, if you ever have a stock fall 25% or more in one day, right after going long you must ALWAYS take 33% to 50% off the table. You can not take gifts like TSRA lightly. This doesn’t happen often (last time was MAMA’s 200% gain in two weeks) this fast but when it does it sure is VERY NICE. As for HLEX, make sure you keep this short to a manageable size of your account. This is not a perfect chart but neither was TSRA. However, this does have the same similar pattern of failing a breakout with a high volume reversal right below the 50 and 200 day moving average. It is not as “fierce” as TSRA but it still is happening. Be careful out there and if in doubt, newbies, remember, cash is king!!!

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

February 25, 2008 | 2 Comments

I don’t recommend ANY newbie take this trade. Just study this chart pattern and realize this can lead to some big gains. In this market, with the short-term trend being up, newbies just don’t need to be short. For the pro’s, if you go short this, definitely do not make it any more than a few % of your portfolio as it just is not ugly enough. However, any time you reverse a breakout attempt so quick (less than a month), it is very bearish and the odds of this stock going lower are greatly in our favor. Keep it small or don’t keep it at all. It would also be nice to make some money on this stock as a short, after making a 25% gain on it last year.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position For Monday’s Stock Market Session

February 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment

The late day reversal had a very short-term bullish feel to it and, of course, put tails on almost every stock that qualified for my shorts scans. But there were a few stocks that closed weak and one of them did so from a very bearish pattern where the stock’s price is reversing a breakout from the month before on strong volume. The reversal-breakdown of the breakout that has taken the stock below the 50 and 200 day moving average should be bearish for this stock. Just in case the stock does not breakdown right away, the good news is that the cut loss area is just slightly above where we are going short putting us in a very excellent reward to risk ratio.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Four New Short Positions And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Short Position For Friday’s Stock Market Session

February 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment

There are some great short setups here tonight but there are two that have excellent short chart patterns (OII and SSRI) but they are both in very strong industry group so we still have to be careful. If all of these stocks were topping and breaking down, maybe I would get more short the silver stock but for me only OII will be a large short tonight. CMTL and ORB will be small. SSRI will be medium. PTR will just be a tiny add since the chart is not loaded with distribution and red BOP. If this chart pattern was more red, in PTR, I would love to get more short. This pattern is bad but not bad enough. Be careful out there and if you are a newbie you should be 75% or more cash and COMPLETELY LEAVING SHORTING STOCKS TO THE EXPERIENCED.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

February 20, 2008 | Leave a Comment

The short scans were very thin tonight after the bullish close the indexes staged but within the small amount of candidates one did stick out as a possible short. That stock is PRE and it does look like it is ready to rollover and crash below the 200 day moving average. But if it does not, we have our cut loss very close by that will prevent us from suffering any significant losses. If you are a newbie and do not have a personal history of making money on the long side of the market, you should avoid going short PRE. Be careful with shorts at this exact moment as the market is still in a slight uptrend off the 1/22 lows.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Small Short Position For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

February 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment

As continues to be the pattern of this market, just like all bear markets, stocks gapped higher and then spent the rest of the day selling off. However, volume was lower than on Friday, thanks to the long weekend, and that is the reason there is only one short candidate tonight. The few stocks that did show up in my short scans are either down too much too fast and/or are topping but are still too early (like the chemical stocks). And that is another thing I want to mention. The chemical stocks must all be covered here as the topping chart pattern has failed and the inverted head and shoulder patterns in the daily charts and the bullish macro backdrop makes these stocks way too risky to be short. Especially when Ken Heebner is still long MOS and POT. I should have known better but these stock chart patterns looked exactly like most stocks do before they top. The amazing thing about these stocks is that everything is in their favor. These products are needed in everything that is related to the global commodities boom. Continue to keep the shorts small as this market is extremely nuts. CASH IS KING and remember this too shall pass. If you ever feel down and feel like this rough market is never going to end, please go to my past big winners page. These charts WILL show up again. It might be a REAL LONG TIME but they will show up again.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

No New Short Positions For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

February 15, 2008 | Leave a Comment

It was a very dull day and the late day bounce combined with the dull action has left us with not a lot to pick from. The small amount of shorts that did show up in my scans were pretty much not in good short positions. The only one that made the cut was FTI and after looking at it closely I can now see that it is above not only the 200 day moving average but above the 21-day moving average and that combined with it having a longer tail on the bottom than on the top (1.12 to 1.07) shows more buying support than selling pressure and therefore is no longer a short for Tuesday. I did not see this in the chart on my laptop as I do not use the 21 DMA on that one and the tail was not noticeable. But on my desktop the stock didn’t look right and after looking closer it is not a good short FOR ME. So today’s extremely dull trading and a small EOD rally has made it impossible to go after any stocks that are breaking down or failing at resistance.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts