Two New Short Positions And Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing Short Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session

January 31, 2008 | Leave a Comment

Just like I said last night, I prefer cash to being heavily short down here. Therefore, I think we should continue to keep our new shorts small until this follow-through (IBD is not calling it–I am even though it will fail) by the Nasdaq and SP 600 fails. This rally could keep on going for a while but considering the amount of distribution in the market combined with the lack of huge volume on today’s move I doubt it will last too long. So new shorts should be small and new longs should be small until a clear trend is in place. Right now this wild intraday volatility that is leaving the market in a state of confusion must be dealt with with caution. Since we are in a downtrend from the highs in October/November and still below the 50 and 200 day moving average, I believe the next leg down will be down again but until we move lower we could rally a bit more and go sideways for three months before rolling over. Tops take a long time to come about. That is why history has proven that the best shorts come five to seven months after a market top. That is when past leaders make their biggest, least volatile, and fastest falls. So remember that when you are about to load up on that AMZN short. Just to let you silver readers know, I am covering all of that stock. It looks like it has bottomed and speaking of bottoming out–have you seen LEN?

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Eight New Short Positions And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Ex-Leaders Short Position For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

January 30, 2008 | 2 Comments

As those who are familiar with me know, I am only focusing on 11 stocks as my large short positions. None of those are listed directly below. UBB RE and AMX are going to be larager positions than MDU YUM ABB, and AGO but MDU and ABB are going to be largeer than AGO and YUM. This should make sense to those that understand how to read charts. For those that do not, please start reading those book I have listed on my books section. I am here to make you a LOT of money and prevent you from losing your capital. I can’t think for you!

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

January 29, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This is a pretty good short considering how the reversal is right near the 50 and 200 day moving average. But the short could be a lot better if BOP was still red and the stock was reversing right at the moving averages. But considering how tough it is to game this current market, I guess this will have to do. If stocks continue to rally, we are going to get some nice short setups, since the rallies continue to be on very low volume compared to the heavy volume selling that is preceding them.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

No New Short Positions For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

January 28, 2008 | Leave a Comment

There was nothing in my two short scans that were even close to being a good short. Everything closed well off the lows and the few that did have a weak close were either still above both moving averages or was already down more than 30% off the 52-week highs. There will be always be days during the downtrend when I will not be able to have anything for you. Today is one of them. Continue to watch the 11 stocks I want to be very short for entry points.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Three New CANSLIM Former-Leaders Short Positions, Two New Short Positions, Two Stocks I Am Adding To My Existing CANSLIM Former-Leaders Short Positions, And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Short Position

January 25, 2008 | Leave a Comment

I am not loading up on the former leaders like I still want to but I am going to initiate a large position in these three equal the size that I took in AAPL GOOG FSLR and to a lesser extent, sadly, GRMN. I still think that is going to be more backing and filling in this market–I could be wrong though–and would like to get them at a better entry point with a clear breakdown around both the 50 and 200 DMA. The volume on these moves still are not convincing that the stocks are ready to give it up. Still they definitely feel very toppy and heavy. SU is very red and full of distribution and even though it is down a lot already it still has a long way to go and looks so weak that it might not bounce before it collapses. ITRI would be a perfect setup if not for the lack of clearly weak price action. But the failures at the moving averages and the tick higher in distribution makes it look bad enough. GOOG is breaking down on heavy volume and is so weak I am afraid it might not bounce again so I would like to get a bit back that I covered yesterday. FSLR and PKX are not failing on huge volume but both stocks are hitting resistance zones and reversing on an increase in volume that makes for good places to add back the short that we covered for profits at lower prices. At this point, all shorts are very small for me, besides the seven big-cap former-leaders and the chemical stocks when their time comes.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position For Friday’s Stock Market Session

January 24, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This is going to be a “starter” position as I do not want to get too short DE as I want to use more of my money for some better setups with other past huge winners that I want to short. But for now, DE makes a good short, as there is nothing else right now because of the very strong closes the market has been producing the past two days. So I am not going over 100 shares but that should be enough to produce some nice gains if this ex-leader decides to selloff here.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position For Thursday’s Stock Market Session

January 23, 2008 | Leave a Comment

The oversold rally that I was looking for in the commentary yesterday came right on time but came on HUGE volume. Therefore, I think it is very dangerous to initiate new shorts here. And the good news about that is that there have been almost zero candidates the past few days as intraday reversals have left hammer patterns and bullish open body candlestick patterns everywhere. So if you have not covered any of your shorts yet–it is time. If you have just gone short a stock and it is showing you a loss on higher volume, you need to get rid of it. One more time: be careful initiating any new shorts. I would wait till this rally ran out of steam before going short. The volume was just too strong and the possibility of a very long oversold rally is possible.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

One New Short Position For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session

January 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This bear market has been beyond wonderful and today my portfolio finally had its “moment” as I was greeted to HUGE gains by the end of the day. This, along with the market being BEYOND oversold with many of my shorts showing reversals or high volume extended moves, is a clear sign to me that we have probably come too far too fast. That is not a bad or good thing. It just is what it is. I saw today that the mom and pop investors were still fully long, after watching CNBC interview them. Then the daytraders are JUST NOW realizing the market is selling off and based on the views of the newbies in the chat rooms they are just now ready to start shorting the upcoming “for sure” stock market crash. This is my clue that I don’t want to be long anything for more than a trade and that I don’t want to be shorting anything here for a trade. The short side is too obvious and almost every chart is extended and the long side is just so wrong with such a vicious down trend in all the general stock market indexes. Even today’s trade is very dangerous due to the stock being down 17 of the last 19 days. There is no way I am putting anything more than a few hundred dollars in this position and newbies should just turn around and walk away.

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Two New Short Positions For Tuesday’s Stock Market Session

January 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment

This market is EXTREMELY oversold yet for some odd reason I have a feeling it can still keep falling. But I think it is just silly to load up on either one of these longs with the market down so far so fast. There is absolutely too much pressure at this point on the market to the bear side for me to press shorts. I really love the ODFL long-term chart and if the market was just starting a selloff I would definitely love to get real short as the stock is right at the 50 day moving average printing a nasty bar on huge distribution. But, darn it, the market just seems too far down to load up on anything else–especially the way my freaking trading has been when it comes to loading up on any play the last six months. TMO looks wonderful for a short when I look at the long term chart. However, the short term chart looks like it has moved down too far too fast as it is 8% below the 50 day moving average. That may not sound like a lot but for TMO that is a lot. So with the baby “wick” at the end of the candlestick chart and the stock being down a bit too much, I expect a snapback rally in TMO. Be careful out there, don’t get nuts with the shorts as the market has moved TOO FAR TOO FAST (down 13 of the past 16 trading sessions), and remember CASH IS KING! That cash is king reference especially refers to the newbies who can’t stop putting on stupid and suicidal trades in a market that shouldn’t be traded by newbies (they are just going to have to learn on their own that buy and hold for over 10 years is nothing but gambling and that daytrading is nothing but FOOLISH when it comes to stocks; or they are going to have to go broke). Are you listening WillPS?

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

Seven New Short Positions And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Short Position

January 17, 2008 | Leave a Comment

I don’t recommend getting short 80 plus stocks like I am now but when they are almost all working what am I supposed to do? Anyways, all of these stocks look very weak and I am going to continue to spread my shorts out until I can load up on GOOG RIMM GRMN BIDU AAPL, solars, and dry bulk shippers. The other reason I have been doing this is because my luck has turned to crap recently with every single one of my smaller long and short positions FLYING while the shorts, and before the shorts-the longs, that I keep taking in bulk continue to do crap (minus PCP which has started like it should being down over 7% in two days). So I am keeping it smart and safe and will continue to hold my big short winners (like SGMS down 46%) and cut my losses fast when the shorts go up instead of down. Be careful out there and make sure you keep a lot of cash on hand for the time when it is time to grab a short-term viciously bullish uptrend. However, we can ONLY do that if stocks that look like ARL setup and breakout on extremely strong volume after the follow-through. If you don’t see those charts, then you continue to wait for the failure at the key trendlines and moving averages as a rally will more-than-likely fail .

Posted by Joshua Hayes | Filed Under Free Archives Shorts

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