» Best of 2007

SHOO 8-7-07 to 1-14-08

Josh Hayes — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:56:15 +0000

SHOO was an excellent setup and a near perfect short. After an initial breakdown on low volume, SHOO tried to find some support on 8/6/07. However, the very next day on extremely strong volume with BOP going red again, the stock went higher intraday only to reverse hard and close in the lower portion of its intraday trading range. This created a very nice short setup and since I felt a top nearing, in my gut, I knew this one would probably do very well. I was not disappointed as SHOO dropped 44% in five months and one week. The stock soon found support after that crack and on 4/21 I was completely out and on 5/30 it was back above the 200 DMA officially killing the short trade. So at least I didn’t mess up and miss a 95-99% gain on this one.

the short:

the low of the move:

LVS 11-12-07 to 4-21-08

Josh Hayes — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:28:09 +0000

First off I want everyone to learn something from this trade. When you have big gains in short positions, never cover ALL of your short until it closes above the 50 day moving average on HUGE volume or closes above the 200 day moving average. To have a big gain and cover your full short because you are afraid to lose some of your gains is silly when using this methodology. However, since I thought this bear would be short (INITIALLY) I covered at the first sign of a close above the 50 day moving average. That has cost me a 97% return in a little over a year. So now is it not only a HUGE gain on the short side but it is a long-term cap gains. So my full cover back in mid-May seems stupid now. Still from the short signal in my “high-priced stocks breaking down” scan to the low in April, LVS gained 42% in a little over five months. It wasn’t a great short for me but still produced very large gains. Too bad I didn’t follow my own rules. However, as you will see when I close out my current shorts, I have learned from my early mistakes this year.

the short:

the low of the move:

DRYS 8-22-07 to 10-29-07

Josh Hayes — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:56:49 +0000

DRYS was a straight Featured play, bounce and breakout off the 50 DMA. For those of you that think BOP wasn’t that nice when it broke out, you are right. But remember I use Featured and a form of momentum trading the HOT HOT HOT beautiful max green BOP filled charts. Sometimes you get both or sometimes you get a little of both. But this time is was straight Featured on a stock with an EPS I believe was 99 and a RS rating I believe was 99. If they were not 99, they were 98’s. The bottom line is I can not ever pass on a breakout in a Featured stock that is breaking out and bouncing off the 50 DMA. If you look at the trend of the market you can see the downtrend ended in August. We soon had a VERY WEAK Follow-Through Day (which hinted that the rally was close to dead) BUT there were a few Featured stocks breaking out and a beauty setting up for what was our last perfect PAST BIG WINNER (APPY). That is why it was good to go long that FTD; because there were stocks still breaking out and setting up in sound patterns. Now after that November to January selloff and wild and chopping churning since January, there are barely any charts that look right with heavy accumulation and little to none distribution. This market is much uglier than what it was before the top. DRYS in two months and one week produced a strong 102% return in a very low VIX environment in a market that was on its last legs. Quite impressive.

the buy:

the top:

VDSI 1-4-07 to 10-15-07

Josh Hayes — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 04:22:00 +0000

VDSI was a pretty clear cut Featured long as it bounced right off the 50 DMA, broke out of a beautiful long term base and a short-term ascending base making it an easy choice to get long. Right after going long, the stock immediately shot up 20% which gave it a requirement that any stock up 20% in one week after your buy needs to be held at least 5-8 weeks. This only goes for Featured stocks, not lower quality stocks. This stock was clearly a near-perfect Featured long and I am disappointed I did not buy more but I was still in with a decent size position so I don’t have too much to complain about. As you can tell the stairstep the whole way up rode the 50 DMA like a champ. Ther were only a few times it tried to go below the 50 DMA and as you can see it showed bullish action both times it flirted with it. From the buy to the top, the stock gained 231% in nine months and two weeks. How could you tell it was topping? A weekly arithmetic chart clearly showed it going into a climax run and September and October started to see heavy distribution followed by lower volume rallies. These two tells after a 200% run are always going to be warning signs that a stock is close to a top.

the big buy:

the top:

MTL 9-27-07 to 12-26-07

Josh Hayes — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 00:00:19 +0000

MTL is a lesson learned on selling too early soon after you see the stock top out (which I thought was the ultimate top) it broke hard below the 50 DMA. Since we were in a bear market I did not wait to see what might happen if the selling picked up so I sold my final shares. But teaching the importance of holding a leading Featured stock till it breaches the 200 DMA (if it does not give climax run signals like this one did not) you should always hold some for more gains. Had I done that instead of taking 100% from buy to top (three months), I could have made 232% in eight months, in the middle of a topping market. As you can see not too much longer MTL did in fact close below the 200 DMA. If you would have sold there you could have taken your final sell with a 128% gain a little under ten months, in the middle of a choppy go nowhere market. But if you were a “hopeful” fool and decided that you would see how it would act around the 200 DMA, you would have woken up to a RUDE AWAKENING on 8/15/08 as the stock CRASHED 37%. This is why you take profits on the way up and the reason I always use the 200 DMA as my final line in the sand. I never hold ANY stock below the 200 DMA–that means NEVER! I made a small mistake with this one and it cost me double the run it fully made. Lesson learned!

the buy:

the top:

the missed REAL TOP:

FSLR 5-22-07 to 12-26-07

Josh Hayes — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 00:09:27 +0000

FSLR was a monster Featured stock that gave a great buy point and was pretty easy to hold the whole way up. Those that followed me into this Featured gem profited handsomely as the stock rose 326% from this purchase to the December top of the current move. That 326% only took seven months to come to fruition.

the buy:

the first sell:

the top:

OIIM 6-28-07 to 10-18-07

Josh Hayes — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 19:44:07 +0000

OIIM was a past big winner because the buy signal was so clearly obvious. Even though only a 50% gain was made you can tell by looking at the pattern you should know via the other “past big winners” that this one had the possibility of becoming a monster. Too bad it was 2007 and right before a vicious bear market.

the first buy:

the second buy:

the third buy:

the top:

TRCR 1-12-07/3-2-07 to 7-16-07

Josh Hayes — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:42:10 +0000

TRCR was a very small buy with my initial position but with my second and third purchase I soon had a large position of a very beautiful stock chart pattern that was making me money. This was not the kind of stock to load up on as it was not a Featured quality long at all or the breakout/bounce was not perfect on max green BOP and huge volume. Instead it was a clearly obvious beautiful chart under a ton of accumulation and I knew I had to get long on the lower volume moves or else I might miss my chance to get long. That was so true as the stock blasted out and took off. From the very first purchase in January to the top in August the stock gained 510% in a little over six months. However, I only had 100 shares there and not the 1000 share position that was taken in both March and April. From the March buy to the top, TRCR gained 225% in four-months-and-two-weeks.

the first small buy:

the big buy:

the second big buy:

the first big sell:

the top:

RICK 10-10-07 to 12-26-07

Josh Hayes — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:09:38 +0000

RICK was not the most perfect long compared to what we used to get but that is the point right there. What we used to get is not what we get now. That probably means our market is in for some rough times. However, during this period of time, while the Nasdaq was trending lower, RICK shined through as its very pretty chart produced a 145% gain in two-and-a-half months. Like I said the chart wasn’t perfect but during this time this stock clearly stood out. Some of my experienced members also came along for the ride so that proves that if you just keep your eye out you will find these too.

the purchase:

the first big sell:

the top:

APPY 9-19-07 to 10-26-07

Josh Hayes — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 09:46:15 +0000

APPY was a very special long for me because I kept the excitement about the chart down to see if anyone else would notice it. I was right. Nobody did and the only people, besides those that have learned from these Past Big Winners, that did were those in the platinum chat room who happened to be around at the time I signaled its near perfection. Near perfection it was but the run didn’t last long as the market quickly turned into a bear market thus ending this stock just as quickly as it started. However, from the start to finish, APPY put in an impressive 150% move in one month and one week. From my big purchase to the top the stock returned 130% and in this current market environment you better believe that qualifies this one, along with the near perfection–9.5-out-of-ten–of this chart pattern, as a Past Big Winner.

The first buy:

The big buy:

The big buy (close up):

The first small sell:

The second sell:

The third sell:

The fourth/biggest sell:

The top: