Possible Stagflation?; Stocks Lose Ground On Higher Volume, Giving The Market Its Second Distribution Day
April 12, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day weak on the back of data from the NAR announcing that they expected existing home sales to fall in 2007-the first drop in 38 yrs-and also see lower existing and new home sales in the short term. That combined with higher gas prices weighed on stocks early. But once again the dip buyers showed up and started to bid stocks higher. That was until the Fed March meeting minutes came out at 2pm. That promptly sent stocks to new lows on the day before they received a minor bid into the close. Read more
Stocks Rally Again And Close Near Their HOD, On Stronger Volume; Volume Well Below The 50 Day Volume Average
April 11, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks performed the same way as they have been recently, with the markets gapping up, selling off, and then finding dip-buyers to help bring them off their lows and sending them near their highs by the close. All of this happened despite a very healthy amount of bad news from the housing and mortgage industry. Almost half of my links that I received today involved stories about the housing and lending markets. However, stocks digested the data and did what they have been doing recently rallying the rest of the day. Read more
Stocks Revert Back To Old Ways; A Day Of Back And Forth Meaningless Trading Ends With Stocks Slightly Higher On Lower Volume
April 5, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks went back to their old ways of not doing much intraday but boring us to death, after a few important economic numbers hit the wires. The ISM service index fell to 52.4 in March from 54.3 in February. Expectations were for 54.7, so obviously this was not good news. The prices paid index rose to 63.3 in March from 53.8 in February, indicating inflation is still very real. Also, according to the Census Bureau’s factory orders, orders fell 1% in February after being down 5.7% in January. These numbers, overall, were very weak and not bullish. However, the market managed to put in more gains despite these poor economic numbers. Read more
Bullish Intraday Reversal, Helps Stocks Avoid Another Possible Ugly Day; Stock Indexes Close Higher On Lower Volume
March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
A bullish Q4 GDP final revision higher to 2.5% from 2.2%, along with jobless claims falling for the fourth week in a row, helped start stocks off on a very bullish foot before the opening bell. But soon after the opening bell, stocks trended lower all day until a strong late afternoon rally sent stocks up into the closing bell with the SP 500 even closing near its HOD. This reversal in the face of rising oil to six-month highs of over $66 a barrel and gasoline future to eight month highs at $2.1355, due to the tension between Iran and the free-world, has to be considered very impressive. Read more
Stock Indexes Close Lower On Higher Volume, Producing The First Distribution Day Since The Follow-Through On Wednesday; Is This Rally Done Already?
March 29, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks turned tail Wednesday and for the second day in a row dip-buyers did not show up as stocks moved lower, with an intraday roller-coaster ride mid-day after a speech by Ben to a Congressional panel, closing near the lows of the day. Things got off to a bad start, after the February durable good came out below expectations of a 3.5% gain with an actual 2.5% gain. That might have been bad but the ex-transportation numbers hitting YOY growth lows not seen since 2003 and capital goods coming in 1.2% lower and at lows not seen since 2004 were probably what really gave traders a scare. On top of that, add oil hitting six-month highs of $68 after-hours and settling in at $64.08 after weekly inventories were announced falling by 900k, comments by Ben that inflation is still a worry, and the tensions between Britain and Iran over the naval incident and you have plenty of reasons for stocks to go lower; and lower they went. Read more
Stocks Reverse Intraday Losses, With Most Indexes Closing Higher On A Slight Uptick In Volume; Housing Market Continues To Swoon
March 26, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Stocks started the day pretty drift-less the first half hour, but soon the excitement started. After a report on new-homes sales falling 3.9% to 848k in February to new seven year lows (June 2000), a report on the months supply of homes on the market rising to 8.1 months which is a 16 yr high (January 1991), and a revision of new-home sales being lowered in November, December, and January, stocks were slammed. On top of that, Citigroup announced plans to cut 15k jobs and take a $1 billion charge to earnings, and oil rose to over $63 a barrel, closing at $63.30. Despite all of this, after the selling was over in the morning, stocks rose the rest of the day closing near their highs. This was a very positive bullish intraday reversal. Read more
A Boring Day Of Trading Ends With Stocks Mixed On Lower Volume; Best Week For Stocks In Six Months
March 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment
A boring, erratic, and overall lame session came to end Friday, after a week of surprises on many fronts. The only thing not boring today was the post-1pm EST action in the Nasdaq; up, wedge up, down, wedge down, and up. Still, that only led to a flat close. Today’s headlines were much more subdued than the previous four days, but we still had some important numbers to digest. Existing-home sales were up 3.9% in February to an annualized 6.69 million. That was the fastest growth since April and above economist estimates. This was a welcome report, after all the thrashing we received last month. The other news item making its way around was the 15 British sailors and marines that were captured by Iranian kidnappers. However, as expected, this was not market moving news. Read more
Stocks Rally For Second Straight Day, On Lower To Flat Volume; Funds Still Have No Interest In This Market
March 20, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was another day of light gains, for the stock market. However, today, had a bit more of a steady bullish bias to it, unlike yesterday, as big-cap indexes closed near their HOD. The good news for stocks came on the back of a better-than-expected housing starts number for February. That number was up 9% for the month, which is much better than the 14% drop in January. The bad news, in that mix, came from building permits as they fell again by 2.5%. The other positives effecting stocks was M & A activity. The news that CYTC is making a full bid for ADZA and that PALM might receive a bid for its business might have had a positive impact on stocks. Read more
A Choppy Day With A Downside Bias Ends With Stocks Slightly Lower; Quadruple Witching = Quadruple Boring
March 16, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was a weird sluggish session, today, but in the end it was another typical quadruple-witching Friday. However, there was plenty of data for Wall Street to go through, despite this once a month event. The CPI rose a little over .4%, a bit higher than the .3% estimate. But the core prices came in line rising .2% for a year over year change of 2.7%. Industrial production jumped 1% in February, over the readings for a .3% increase and its largest increase since November. Michigan consumer confidence fell (are you surprised there?) to 88.8. Add the fact that oil fell below $58 and might have thought it would have been a more exciting day. Nope. Quadruple-witching ruled the day. Read more
Markets Fail Attempted Rally, Falling Across The Board And Closing At Or Near Their LOD; Are Any Of My Readers Surprised? No
March 14, 2007 | Leave a Comment
It was another very ugly day for the stock market as the continuation of non-stop bad news keeps coming out. Today, before the opening bell, it was retail sales coming in at a less than .1% gain, when economist were expecting a .3% gain. That got the day started on the wrong foot but by noon time there was more pain to be delivered. The news that foreclosures rose to a .54% total of all mortgages outstanding, mortgage delinquencies rose to 4.95% of all loans, and that subprime delinquencies rose to 14.4% of all loans sent stock swooning into the close. These poor loan numbers were the worst since mid-2003. Read more
- Two New Short Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session
- No New Long Positions For Friday’s Stock Market Session
- Two New Short Positions For Thursday’s Stock Market Session
- One New Speculative CANSLIM Long Position And One Stock I Am Adding To My Existing Speculative Long Position For Thursday’s Stock Market Session
- No New Short Positions For Wednesday’s Stock Market Session
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